this moment

You are this moment (Quote)

2011-01-28T21:14:00.000+01:00

"This is our generation's Sputnik moment," President Obama said in last night's State of the Union Address, invoking something that we have all felt to one degree or another. To say that we live in extraordinary times is an understatement—the threats before us have never been more menacing, the opportunities never more thrilling, and the need for personal and collective evolution never more urgent. ... But this moment—this precious Sputnik moment—is not something that exists outside of you. In a nondual sense, you are this moment, you are this threat, you are this opportunity." - Andrew Cohen and Ken Wilber, January 2011

Von Neugierigen mit langen Schwänzen... zu Markt- und Trendanalyse

2010-11-16T14:08:00.001+01:00

Wenn ich als Kind in der Küche meiner Oma stand, dann war ich, wie andere Kinder auch, sehr neugierig. Irgendwo in diesem Raum gab es Schokolade, soviel war sicher. Ein Mini-Tischkicker lag manchmal ganz oben auf dem Schrank. Da konnte es also durchaus noch andere spannende Sachen geben. Also stand ich da und wollte wissen, was in jedem Schrank ist und besonders, was oben auf dem Schrank liegt. „Neugierige mit langen Schwänzen,“ antwortete mir meine Oma, wenn ihr die Fragerei zu viel wurde. Aber was um Himmels willen waren „Neugierige mit langen Schwänzen“??

Ja, die Küche meiner Oma hatte es in sich…

Neugierig bin ich immer noch und habe daraus meinen Beruf gemacht. Als Markt- und Trendanalystin bin ich neugierig im Auftrag von Organisationen, die wissen wollen, wie sich ihr Marktumfeld verändert. Ich recherchiere in Datenbanken, Statistiken, in Blogs und Tweets, ich spreche mit Auskennern und Nicht-Kennern. Ich bringe meine Ergebnisse in eine verständliche Form, damit es ganz klar wird, was in einem Markt gerade läuft –und wohin die Reise gehen könnte. Nach einer neugierigen Situationsanalyse lassen sich gute Entscheidungen treffen. Davon bin ich überzeugt.

Und warum ich das aufschreibe?

Na, um neugierig zu machen auf meine neue Website: http://www.ines-seidel.de/

Übrigens, die Engländer irren, wenn sie meinen „Curiosity killed the cat.“ Es muss heißen „Curiosity saved the cat.“ Ohne Neugier gibts nur Stagnation.

Giveaways, Spielzeug und Marktforschung

2010-10-27T21:51:00.002+02:00

Die Stiftung Warentest trat letzte Woche mit der "bösen Überraschung" an die Öffentlichkeit, dass 80% der getesteten Spielwaren mit gesundheitsgefährenden Schadstoffen belastet sind. Markennamen waren dabei leider kein Garant für Qualität. Daran musste ich denken als ich heute auf der Research & Results Messe meine Tasche mit den Messeinformationen und Giveaways erhielt. Darunter war auch ein Spielzeug - eine knautschige Giraffe made in China. Natürlich weiss ich nicht, ob die gut gemeinte Aufmerksamkeit der GfK Gruppe auch Schadstoffe enthält. Steht ja nicht drauf. Ich sehe nur Plastikverpackung, ich rieche den penetranten Plastikgeruch und was ich nicht erkennen kann, ist der Nutzwert. Darf man von einem Marktforschungsunternehmen, das zum Beispiel herausgefunden hat, dass sich VerbraucherInnen ökologische Verpackungen wünschen, dann auch erwarten dass es seinen eigenen Ergebnissen traut? Tja. Aber es geht eigentlich nicht um die GfK (deren kompetenten Service ich in meiner Zeit als Fernsehforscherin zu schätzen gelernt habe). Werbegeschenke von Firmen sind häufig nicht besonders nachhaltig.
Dabei geht es auch anders. Ein Beispiel dafür fand ich beim Markenartikler Kimberly Clark, dessen Toilettenpapiermarke Scott (in den USA) derzeit als Giveaway die "Smart Flush Bag" enthält: Die Tüte wird in den Spülkasten gelegt, saugt sich dort voll Wasser und bewirkt dadurch, dass bei jedem Spülgang etwas weniger Wasser zu Abwasser wird. Eine gute Idee, die Kosten und Wasser spart und ein gutes Licht auf die Marke wirft.

Übrigens hat Wirtschaftsminister Brüderle nun gefordert, die EU-Richtlinien für Chemikalien in Spielzeug zu überarbeiten. Für Giveaways rechne ich nicht mit Richtlinien, aber Marktforschungsunternehmen werden die Zeichen der Zeit sicher schnell erkennen...

Shift happens - nach der Textil-Diät

2010-10-17T22:00:00.001+02:00

Nach meiner 365-Tage-Textilkauf-Abstinenz (die ich inzwischen dem Trend zur "Apparell Diet" zuordnen kann) stellte sich - nein, kein Jojo-Effekt - sondern bewußteres Einkaufen ein. Katalog-Ware und Ladenketten, nee, das kommt mir inzwischen wie Kantinenessen vor: Aus zu billigen Zutaten für den Standardgeschmack gekocht. So habe ich dawanda für mich entdeckt. Hier gibts nicht nur originelle Teile und Unikate, ich unterstütze ausserdem kreative Köpfe darin, von ihren Schöpfungen leben oder sich damit etwas dazuverdienen zu können. Toll finde ich zum Beispiel die upcyclingmanufaktur, in der aus gebrauchten Textilien neue, ausgefallene Stücke entstehen.
Zu einem Lieblingsladen ist ausserdem auch manomama aus Augsburg geworden: Hier wird nicht nur faire und ökogerechte Mode gemacht, Gründerin Sina Trinkwalder beeindruckt auch mit ihrer offen-ehrlichen Art und ihrem Einfallsreichtum. Und wer was über den Umgang von Firmen mit "Sozialen Medien" lernen will, kann sich von ihr abschauen, wie man's richtig macht.
Im dawanda-Shop von karlita hab ich übrigens den Kettenanhänger aus der Umschalt-Taste einer alten Schreibmaschine entdeckt. Shift happens. Ich hab den Umschalter dabei.

SocialMediaJunkies können auch anders - auf dem BarCamp München

2010-10-12T23:17:00.003+02:00

Am vergangenen Wochenende war BarCamp in München - und "alle Webbies, DigitalNatives, SocialMediaJunkies und Interessierte" waren geladen. Für mich war es die erste Unkonferenz, aber ganz sicher nicht die letzte. Neue Kontakte, interessante Gespräche, frische Denkanstöße und obendrein Feedback zu einem Projekt - ich hatte mehr bekommen, als ich erwartet hatte. Und das lag eben nicht nur an der super Organisation (von flobbymedia), sondern an dem, was die Teilnehmer und Teilnehmerinnen an Themen und Neugier beisteuerten. Dass sich auf BarCamps vorwiegend männliche Technikfreaks unter 30 herumtreiben, doch, dieses Vorurteil hatte ich mitgebracht, konnte es aber gleich aussortieren. Im "Haus der Kommunikation" (Location gesponsort von ServicePlan) waren jedenfalls auch Frauen gut repräsentiert, die Altersgrenzen wurden von Kleinkindern und Grauhaarigen weit nach unten und oben verschoben. Und wenn "Social Media" sicher thematisch der gemeinsame Nenner für die BarCamper war, dann ließ sich doch feststellen, dass "SocialMediaJunkies" auch anders können: Bierbrauen zuhause, Zaubern, Gewaltfreie Kommunikation waren nur einige der nicht-einschlägigen Sessionangebote. Die Auswahl viel oft schwer...

Kurz entschlossen habe ich selbst auch eine Session angeboten und in kleiner Runde besprochen, für welche kulturelle Entwicklungsstufen das Thema Nachhaltigkeit (oder die Plattform Facebook) steht und welche Herausforderungen und Lösungsmöglichkeiten sich daraus für die Kommunikation über dieses Thema ergeben. (Hat mit dem integalen Ansatz von Ken Wilber und Spiral Dynamics zu tun. Dazu später mehr)

Inzwischen habe ich meinen Eltern vom BarCamp erzählt - und hatte den Eindruck, sie würden sich das auch gern einmal aus der Nähe ansehen... Tja, und wieso auch nicht. Das BarCamp-Format würde sich doch prima eignen, um die Talente einer Region zusammenzuführen oder Erfahrungsaustausch zwischen Jung und Alt anzuregen. Wie wär's mit NachbarschaftsCamps oder GenerationenCamps?

Einen Überblick über die nächsten BarCamps in Deutschland (und anderswo) gibts übrigens bei BarCamp.org. (Danke für den Tipp @BarCampB)S

Coworking Week

2010-09-20T09:58:00.002+02:00

Letzte Woche war bundesweite Coworking Week mit über 100 Veranstaltungen in ganz Deutschland - in München war besonders im Combinat 56 einiges geboten. Zumindest die Auftaktveranstaltung (Open Elevator mit anschliessender Vernissage) und den krönenden Abschluss (mit einem Vortrag von Nahne Steinauer vom Kursbüro zu Online-Geschäftsmodellen) habe ich mir nicht entgehen lassen - und dabei interessante Leute kennengelernt, andere Coworker wiedergetroffen und neue Impulse bekommen. Coworking in schönster Form.

Das passt zu meinem aktuellen Thema, bei dem es um vernetztes Arbeiten geht: Die Formen und Vorteile von Netzwerkbildung, speziell für Klein- und Kleinstunternehmen, aber auch die Schwierigkeiten und Grenzen. Nachdem ich mich durch jede Menge wissenschaftlicher Artikel und Fallstudien gelesen hatte, fiel mir auf, dass noch vor 5 - 10 Jahren sehr viel Hoffnung in das Internet und die damit verbundenen neuen technischen Kooperations- und Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten gesetzt wurde, die vernetztes Arbeiten ermöglichen sollten.

Tun sie ja auch. Trotzdem ist inzwischen eine gewisse Ernüchterung (oder Gewöhnung an Web2.0) eingetreten. Tolle technische Lösungen sind eine schöne Sache, der Erfolg eines "Collaborative Network" hängt aber an anderen Faktoren - und viele davon haben wieder mit Vertrauen zu tun: Angst vor Kontrollverlust, Angst vor Know-How-Verlust, Unsicherheit über Kompetenzen, Gewinnverteilungs- und Haftungsfragen,... all diese Dinge brauchen eine Kultur des Vertrauens (einschliesslich Selbstvertrauen) um ansprechbar zu werden. Persönliche Treffen sind dabei noch immer die besten "Tools" um Vertrauen aufzubauen. Was ich in der Wissenschaftsliteratur noch nicht gelesen habe: Coworking Spaces als besonders geeignete Orte, um sich zwanglos kennenzulernen und Vertrauen zu fassen. Kommt noch, ganz sicher!

Vertrauen Macht Schlagzeilen

2010-08-17T19:09:00.000+02:00

Allerorten wird Vertrauen verspielt, verschwindet, hört auf oder wird zumindest erschüttert. Seltener wächst es mal und gelegentlich wird um Vertrauen gekämpft. Vertrauen ist ein fragiles Gut - und interessanterweise auch ein Machtinstrument. Zumindest dann, wenn öffentlich das Vertrauen ausgesprochen oder eben entzogen wird. Dank sozialer Medien ist diese Form, Druck auszuüben, nicht mehr auf Politiker oder Journalistinnen beschränkt, in Twitter und Facebook kann jede(r) vor mehr oder weniger großem Publikum die Vertrauensfrage stellen.

Schlagzeilen wie „Drei Viertel aller Deutsche-Bahn Tweets der letzten Woche sind negativ“ sieht man nicht in den Medien. Noch nicht?

365 Tage Einkaufsstopp im Selbstversuch

2010-08-12T11:21:00.002+02:00

Ende Juli 2009 stehe ich vorm Kleiderschrank und bemerke – mal wieder – wie voll der ist, für eine frisch gekaufte Jacke ist kaum noch Platz. Dabei trage ich nur einen Bruchteil der Sachen, die dafür aber regelmäßig. Und natürlich bin ich auch regelmäßig der Meinung, nichts zum Anziehen zu haben. Dann brauche ich etwas Neues, ist ja klar. Besonders nachhaltig ist das nicht und auch nicht besonders einfallsreich.

Ich beschließe ein Experiment: 365 Tage keine neuen Klamotten für mich kaufen. Stattdessen die vergessenen und schrulligen Teile in die Garderobe einbeziehen und neu kombinieren. Vorhandene Ressourcen kreativ nutzen, so die Philosophie. Flohmarkt-Käufe und –Verkäufe sollten erlaubt sein. Wie würde es mir damit ergehen?

Ein Jahr ist vergangen. Zeit für eine Bilanz:

Habe ich durchgehalten? Wenn ich von den 2 Paar Sandalen und 2 Gürteln, die ich mir gekauft habe, großzügig absehe, habe ich mir tatsächlich nichts Neues gekauft. Vom Flohmarkt kamen einige wenige Sachen in meinen Schrank. Verkauft habe ich selbst nichts (wie ursprünglich geplant), nur ein paar Kindersachen, aber die zählen nicht. Der Radius der Kleidungsstücke, die ich regelmäßig trage, hat sich schon erweitert, aber es gibt immer noch genug ungenutztes Potential. Ein paar Sachen habe ich auch endgültig weggegeben. Kaputte Reißverschlüsse und aufgerissene Nähte habe ich tendenziell häufiger repariert oder reparieren lassen.
Welche Auswirkungen hatte das Experiment? Der wichtigste und am wenigsten erwartete Effekt war der Zeitgewinn. Kataloge wanderten ungesehen in den Müll, keine Streifzüge zum Nur-mal-so-Umsehen durch die Läden, keine Modezeitschriften, kein Klicken durch Online-Shops. Vergleichen, Auswählen, Anprobieren – das ist auch Stress und den hatte ich nicht mehr.
Wie hat es sich angefühlt? Zunächst war da die Erleichterung, dem Kaufstress entronnen zu sein, auch eine gewisse Selbstzufriedenheit (Vorsicht, Gutmenschentum!). Dann kamen auch Momente, in denen ich gern etwas Neues gekauft hätte. Eine Lieblingsstrickjacke war versehentlich in der Kochwäsche gelandet, am liebsten hätte ich mich mit einem neuen Ersatz getröstet. Der Kauftrieb war also da. Perfiderweise wurde in solchen Situationen aus dem ursprünglichen Gedanken („Ich kaufe nichts, weil ich aus dem Reichtum meines Kleiderschranks schöpfe“) ein ganz anderer Gedanke: "Ich darf nichts kaufen, weil ich Ressourcen sparen muss." So wie man zwanghaft kaufen kann, kann man auch zwanghaft nicht kaufen. Der Gedanke, nicht genug zu haben, der jedesmal dahinter steckt, ist extrem hartnäckig.
Und nun? Vor ein paar Tagen bin ich durch einige Läden gelaufen – und habe gestaunt: Neue Hosenschnitte, andere Stoffe. Auf die neue Mode war ich ja nicht vorbereitet. Natürlich war mir Vieles schon hier und da auf der Straße aufgefallen, da fand ich es kreativ und individuell. Aber als ich die Sachen dann nach Größen sortiert in den Regalen sah, war die Vorstellung von Individualität dahin. Keine neue Erkenntnis, aber so krass hatte ich es noch nicht erlebt.

Übrigens: Auf die Idee mit dem Experiment war ich unter anderem durch das Uniform Project gekommen: Sheena Mattheiken trug ein Jahr lang das gleiche Kleid, aber jeden Tag mit gebrauchten oder geschenkten Accessoires völlig anders gestylt. Mit dem Projekt zeigte sie nicht nur, dass nachhaltige Mode individuell und fantasievoll sein kann, sondern sammelte auch Spenden für die Schulbildung von Kindern in indischen Slums. Dafür wurde sie von der Zeitschrift Elle sogar zu einer der Frauen des Jahres 2009 gekürt. Unbedingt ansehen!

Sprachsache

2010-08-09T20:25:00.001+02:00

Lange Sendepause. Unter anderem um zu überlegen, wie es weitergehen soll, mit diesem weblog. Sicher ist: Es wird weitergebloggt. Vielleicht auf einem anderen Sendeplatz, das wird sich noch zeigen. Auf jeden Fall nicht mehr zwangsläufig auf Englisch.
Und weil Sprache selbst so ein Lokalisierungstool ist, zur Illustration ein paar deutsche Wörter, die sozusagen globalisiert haben :-)

Wen's interessiert: Mehr deutsche Vokabeln, die diesen Weg gegangen sind z.B. bei Wikipedia

Future Past

2010-06-02T15:00:00.000+02:00

"We must welcome the future, remembering that soon it will be the past; and we must respect the past, remembering that it was once all that was humanly possible." - George Santayana.

If Creativity was Currency

2010-04-30T14:16:00.000+02:00

Some weeks back, the little Gallery Patrizia Zewe hosted Munich’s first art- for-service swap. Artists traded their works (see picture) for services they could use, like a course in digital photography or a ride to Frankfurt. Many similar exchange projects exist – one of the latest that caught my attention is Clothing for Correspondence, a service by professional texters, who will write your fun correspondence in exchange for second hand clothes.

Just odd experiments? Well, most of the time, creativity has to be translated into an accepted currency before it pays the bill. This is what David Thorne learned, when he allegedly tried to pay his electricity bill with a spider doodle in 2008. Now a Brooklyn hospital finds that time is an acceptable currency, too, and that health care services can be paid with performances.

In May, the Woodhull Medical and Mental Health Center in Brooklyn will launch the Artist Access program , which will allow artists to collect health care credits for a performance in the geriatric ward, for teaching drawing in the pediatric unit or for decorating the hospital interior with murals. Health care credits (40 credits per hour) can then be used to pay for fees incurred at Woodhull for health care services.

Transactions without money will become less exotic in the Gig Economy, I am sure of that. And, well, the reason I am shedding a light on this topic is that I am willing to exchange 5 of my doodle art envelopes for a decent sun hat.

Gig Economy = Gig Security = Gig Consumption?

2010-04-23T11:58:00.000+02:00

In 2009, 6.4 per cent more new businesses were founded than in 2008 – in Munich. “(M)ore peope are ready to take their professional future into their own hands in times of crisis,“ Peter Driessen of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce commented. The phenomenon is not restricted to Munich, of course. The growth in self-employed workers and freelancers is seen as a taste of the future of work, something to celebrate or at least to get used to. I agree to that: More self-dependence fits to the Knowledge Economy and the desire for self-realization. Of course I agree, I am a freelancer myself!

Yet, not everyone is choosing to be an entrepreneur in order to make their life’s dream come true. In times of crisis, trying freelancing is simply better than having no job at all.

But, whatever the reason to join the Gig Economy, the sorry truth is that the everyday infrastructures are not prepared for the “future of work” just yet. Your landlord would prefer you to have a fixed employment (even if that doesn’t guarantee secure income either), your bank will see you as a risky investment when you need a credit and also other long-term-projects like raising a child may seem too venturous to consider.

So, if we accept that working from project to project is the rule for a majority of people in the future, how can life circumstances be made more acceptable and less stressful for job nomads?

There are probably two main visions for a new safety net. One is connected to basic income that proponents expect from the state. Guaranteed basic income is heavily discussed in Germany and all political parties propose their own versions - which are more or less related to the original idea. Anyway, the reality of a citizen income is no longer unthinkable.

The other vision is that of self-help within communities. For instance, coworking spaces can be seen as a community solution to handling office rent and ideally to finding new projects and inspiration. Other forms of community self-help can be co-housing, peer to peer lending, alternative currencies, car sharing…you get the idea. Community based solutions don’t need to wait for political decisions. But they still feel like patchwork. (And of course, community self-help would nicely fit to basic income. Indeed, basic income can be seen as one form of community self-help, too.)

But apart from communities or the state also companies play a role. After all, they not only like to work with flexible workers, they also want to sell their products and services. Only in this case, selling may not be the right word as lending and renting, pay-per-use and other flexible models will often replace regular transactions. The side effect would be that less products need to be produced - and again, less people need to work in production. More of them could join the Gig Economy. Hooray!

Is this a healthy development or a vicious circle?

I think the answer largely depends on how fast the infrastructure can adapt to new job and income realities. And at some level, the infrastructure is us :-)

Related articles:
Ressession adds to appeal of part-time jobs – nytimes.com 19.4.2010
Studie- Existenzgründung aus der Not heraus – FTD.de 10.4.2010

Tweet Posting

2010-04-15T21:05:00.004+02:00

Just this week I finished a project that involved creating a Twitter strategy for a group of Cleantech companies. Looking at the growing relevance of Twitter on the internet (see Sysomos or Comscore), I must say it would be a grave mistake for these companies to ignore Twitter. As a Twitter user, I must also say, please don't see Twitter as just another marketing channel.

Twitter did not occupy much of my time after I first registered as @this_moment but has become a fixed part of my daily routines ever since I discovered hootsuite.com (and opened up @ines_doodles as second account). So my personal behavior in a way humbly reflects the tremendous growth that Twitter has seen in the last months

What I have also seen growing is the number of accounts by small and medium size companies. Unfortunately, many of their tweets I can only regard as spam: Mentioning brand names over and over again quickly bores followers and does nothing to improve the image of the company. In fact, the more companies come to Twitter, the more impatient Twitteristi become with one-way-messages. It even seems that a growing share of the conversation on Twitter is about blocking spam - but that may just be my personal impression.

"Embedding advertised tweets into social media is about trying to bully your way into the attention of someone," Kim Heras at the Next Web says about Twitter's new Promoted Tweets, and that also holds for "regular" promotional company tweets. As long as firms regard Twitter as just one more marketing channel, they are bound to be seen as bullies.

The secret to being accepted and followed at Twitter is simple: Don't see Twitter as being full of customers, but as being full of people you can listen to, people you can have a conversation with or people you can make friends with. Become one of them.

It's a bit like Personal Branding, just the other way round. In simple terms, Personal Branding is about becoming the marketing manager of oneself in order to support one's career development. Similarly, brands should be developing personalities in order to have a career of engaging conversations with real people. That will work best when the company culture permits authentic personalities to speak out publically. As simple as that. And as hard.

Trends affecting Creative Industries

2010-02-12T08:49:00.005+01:00

Last year I had the pleasure to take part in a project that investigated developments related to the Creative Economy. A presentation with some of the results has been published now.

Trend Pulse For Creative Industries

View more presentations from Ines Seidel.

The most obvious result has been maybe that the Creative Economy has started to unfold already. And there is no going back. Looking at the amount of studies on Creative Industries that result is certainly not a surprise anymore.

What became increasingly clear is that the professional inside the creative economy is a different animal than the professional of the age of industrialized mass-production. This has implications for education, work organization, measuring success etc. These implications are also obvious, but nevertheless have mostly not led to conscious changes of educational systems or organizational structures. Indeed, changes seem hard to implement, because they require more than just a few add-ons or adjustments to the existing economy. They require to make decisions from a different mind set.

Or do they? What became clearer to me after the study finished was that mind sets evolve as well, even if there is no intention to change, simply because we're all witnessing the paradigm shift around us. Yes, mind sets evolve too slow to avoid a certain level of friction and dissatisfaction, but nevertheless...

Happy Economy

2010-02-06T14:32:00.004+01:00

People have always wanted a happy life. What is new today is that economists, business leaders and whole governments are discussing how to assure that the increase of happiness is the goal of the economy. Much of the discussion concentrates on GDP (Gross Domestic Growth) or rather, alternatives to GDP, which would for instance account also for sustainability, equality of opportunities and subjective measures of happiness.
Among the candidates discussed are the the Human Development Index (HDI), used by the UN's Development Programme, the Genuine Progress Indicator, which incorporates aspects of social welfare, or the Happy Planet Index (HPI), which combines economic metrics with subjective indicators of well-being.

What would an economy that strives for happiness look like? Well, we can maybe look to Bhutan for some inspiration. Bhutan is the only country in the world where government policy is measured in terms of the impact on national happiness. In 2006, Bhutan banned some TV channels like wrestling and MTV which they felt did not promote happiness. Bhutan has banned Tobacco and plastic bags on the grounds that they make the country less happy. In order to hold back consumerism, advertising in public spaces is banned. Strict laws have been put in place to protect the environment. The standard of living is not as high as it could have been as growth has been moderated on purpose. (Source: BBC)

When is Growth sustainable?

2010-01-21T17:14:00.006+01:00

„Sustainable Growth“ is one of those post-crash mantras. You can hear it wherever people discuss ways to move out of the crisis. I heard about “sustainable growth” just last week at an event in Munich were key note speakers from Nokia Siemens Networks, SAP, Nokia and other companies discussed the trends that would move the ICT industry out of the economic crisis. Oh, sustainable growth.

What do we actually mean when we put sustainability next to growth? In the contexts that I heard or read about “sustainable growth” it often meant nothing but “any growth”. These were the desperate contexts. In other contexts “sustainable growth” translated as “stable growth”, i.e. a kind of growth that is safe, reliable and comes without disturbing bumps. There is nothing wrong with that, yet I think the aspect of keeping growth in balance with the larger ecosystem is not fully expressed through stability.

Sustainability and growth are not easy bedfellows. If there is one thing that can be learned from the financial crisis then it is that too much growth is not sustainable. Therefore, the talk of "sustainable growth" is not credible without addressing this intricacy.

It seems important to get the priorities right. Would we limit growth for the sake of sustainability? And where is the tipping point? A question that is hard to answer.

Yvon Chouinard, the founder of outdoor-apparel maker Patagonia has a pretty radical aproach: "I'm kind of like a samurai," he told FastCompany in an interview. "They say if you want to be a samurai, you can't be afraid of dying, and as soon as you flinch, you get your head cut off. I'm not afraid of losing this business." With that he wanted to emphasize that, in case of doubt, his vision for Patagonia ("to use business to inspire and implement solutions to the environmental crisis.")will not be compromised, even if it would mean to make a loss.

In fact, Chouinard experienced that the more he did for the environment (like annually donating one percent of sales to environmental groups), the better it was for his company's financials. He encourages other companies to follow the same path: "I'm saying to other companies that every time we did the right thing for the planet, we made money on it. I'm telling them that not only do we have to change, but also that it will be a good thing economically." ( see interview)

That made me think. Is the economy ready for a samurai approach towards growth and defend sustainable values, even if that might (but does not have to) mean to lose shareholders, profits or clients?

Slow and Fast

2010-01-07T11:30:00.002+01:00

“How do we slow down what matters the most and speed up what benefits change and progress? We don’t want to impede progress, but we are seeking reconnection to ourselves, to each other, and with the world.”- John Maeda, president of the Rhode Island School of Design. Quote taken from Hurry up and Wait, a recent feature at Good that asked various artists and futurists about the prospect of the Slow Movement.

From Job Frustration to Responsibility

2010-01-04T21:00:00.007+01:00

Over the past weeks, I have had some informal discussions with people (in Germany) about their job situation and what I heard was a deep dissatisfaction with management, the organizational culture or "the system" as a whole:

People are frustrated that they are treated "as if we were stupid" (for instance when management does not communicate the background of decisions).

People are frustrated that their personal engagement (doing more than what is expected) or experience is not valued or is even regarded as a nuisance.

Often, personal engagement ("the reason why I wanted to do this job") is cut short because the focus inside the organization is merely on quantity of results, efficiency of operation and there is no time to do something "as good as it should be done", for fostering personal work relationships or for developing new ideas.

People are frustrated about a focus on control rather than trust. Consequently, executives are often viewed as inflexible or authoritarian.

In sum, the people I talked to had the feeling that they are not seen or not recognized by management. As a result they tell themselves that their organization does not deserve or want anything else but medium performance.

People seem to put up with their frustrations because...

They feel helpless ("this is how things are, they will not change and I have to cope somehow").

They feel dependent on the money or other benefits ("better than no job so I can't complain").
They cannot imagine a different kind of working. Fun or passion are not associated with a job. (And that I find really sad.)

Now, if all of the above was only true for the 10 to 15 people that I spoke with, there would still be no reason to be sad. However, I suspect that I spoke with representatives of the 87% of the employees in Germany that are not emotionally engaged with their work (which means they just "work-to-rule" or are completely disengaged) - this is the figure Gallup found in their 2008 Employee Engagement Survey. I would expect the situation to be worse in the new survey that will be published in spring. And, mind you, I am not talking about a specifically German problem. Compared to some other European countries, Germany is still doing ok.

One might think that having a workforce that is, by and large, neither very committed nor productive should ring a few alarm bells. Not just among companies, but nationwide. After all, national competitiveness, the holy cow, is at stake.

Yet, when politicians talk about the need to increase innovation and creativity (as they do for instance in the "EU 2020" strategy), they don't seem to be aware that the level of de-motivation and mistrust in organizations is working against their planned measures (which focus on R&D investments, new financing models and digital networks).

A key word here is empowerment. Managers should be empowered to shake off the habit of controlling and take on the responsibility to truly see the potential of each employee. Employees need to be empowered so that they can shake off the habit of helplessness and take responsibility for their work engagement.

Empowerment is a process that can be facilitated...yet, individuals or organizations have to go through a learning process on their own. Nobody can do that for them. Facing the anger and frustration is a good start as a lot of energy and power can flow from this. - Exactly what is needed to take responsibility for positive change!

Replacing killer apps

2009-12-07T21:29:00.006+01:00

The search for the next "killer app" is going on for decades already. So, obviously, not much brain was needed to write about "killer communities". (As spotted in a presentation on the slideshare front page.)

"Killer apps" evoke images of "bloody competition". Seems to me that it's time to use metaphors that are in line with the spirit of collaboration and co-creation- Especially when talking about communities.

(pictures from presentations here and here)

Pandora's Box Retold

2009-11-03T19:17:00.005+01:00

It has been said that we need to change the stories that we tell ourselves in order to be able to transform who we are. The story of Pandora's box may be one such story. As Wikipedia explains, "Pandora had been given a large jar and instruction by Zeus to keep it closed, but she had also been given the gift of curiosity, and ultimately opened it. When she opened it, all of the evils, ills, diseases, and burdensome labor that mankind had not known previously, escaped from the jar, but it is said, that at the very bottom of her box, there lay hope. There is no reason to think Pandora acted out of malice in opening the jar, for she was exercising her curiosity, and when she saw what was let out of it, she quickly closed it."

This beautiful animation by Gobelins retells the story very differently. While curiosity may be the reason why The Evil comes into the world, it is also fearless curiosity that becomes key to outwitting The Evil and to personal growth (in a very literal sense).

While the demon in the video insists on enacting patterns of domination and victimization (another old story) - the child refuses to play according to this script. She even has the courage to dive right into the mysterious dark box, from which she re-emerges as a grown being.

When I came across this video I had just finished reading Soulcraft by Bill Plotkin. Bill Plotkin believes that by courageously facing the underworld of the soul, we can find our true place in the world and our authentic self. He describes various “soulcraft skills”, such as dream work, wandering in nature or vision quests, which help to step out of the ordinary world with its usual scripts, and into a process of self-discovery. A process that is, by necessity, a terrifying experience for the ego, which would prefer safety and comfort to transcendence any time.

So what do we do with Pandora's Box? Do we continue to complain about "The Evil", be scared by it, try to control or fight it. Or do we have the courage to accept and face it, study it without looking for blame, - and be changed by this process.

(I have commented on "Pandore's box" also at Freshcreation.com)

Hello, Prima Donna

2009-09-29T20:36:00.005+02:00

A few weeks ago I had the pleasure to attend the CEB (Creative Economy and Beyond) conference in Helsinki - a great place to mingle and to pick up ideas.

Among the people I had met was Roosevelt Finlayson from the Bahamas who spoke about Festivals as a model for building creative communities, and for establishing commitment and self-esteem.
His presentation was the last one that first conference day, so in the conversation afterwards we not only moved from one topic to the next, but also from the harbour district to the city center. I noticed that people responded to Roosevelt as if they knew him, as if they regarded him as a friend, even before he said a single word. (And that is certainly not the typical Finnish mentality). "How do you do this," I asked Roosevelt. "Well, I love people," he said simply. And by then I could tell that this was indeed a fact, not an idealized vision of himself.

In a way, Roosevelt Finlayson embodied a finding from a study that Helle Hedegard Hein presented at CEB the next day. In order to find out how highly creative employees should be managed, she had spent three years at the Royal Danish Theatre observing how managers and creative specialists behaved. She found that creative specialists can basically be grouped into four categories:
The Prima Donnas who feel that they have a higher calling: Prima Donnas experience flow and get kicks out of working hard and stretching their personal limits. What they want from their managers is honest feedback, recognition and a shielding leadership. Status and financial rewards are not motivating for them, as they feel they have a mission to give their personal gift to the world.
The calling to a higher mission was totally missing in creative specialists in the other three categories: The High Achievers, the Pragmatists and the Pay Check Worker are, in varying degrees, more motivated by status, public praise and financial rewards, while their creativity and commitment decreases. The most difficult creative specialists are those in the "Pay Check Worker" box, as they constantly demand a higher salary while at the same time they defend low performance standards. For them, just coming to work already deserves a special bonus.
Two observations were especially interesting:

No one is somehow genetically tied to one category. But creative people can regress to a lower category, either voluntarily (if that makes sense for a period in life), or involuntarily, out of frustration. And unfortunately, the latter seems to be the case most of the time.
Managers should never address Pay Check Workers as Pay Check Workers, Pragmatists as Pragmatists or High Achievers as High Achievers as that will cause them to regress even more.

So the solution for managers is very simple: Everyone should be addressed like a prima donna, everyone is at a deep and maybe hidden level, a prima donna, a person with a unique gift to bring into the world.

Which brings me back to Roosevelt Finlayson, who can see the prima donna and the lovable side even in the strangers around him. Strangers, who then started to see him in the same way, as a trustworthy friend.

Why do rules tend to be ugly?

2009-09-21T21:51:00.004+02:00

For some reason, enforcing rules often seems to produce ugliness. (Pictures from Helsinki)

Connecting to Urban Space

2009-09-05T10:27:00.003+02:00

Connect To Urban Space

View more documents from Ines Seidel.

Recently I had a look at trends and developments that are related to the creative industries. And there was a aha!-moment for me when I realised that for many of the creative professionals, who often have a message that they are passionate about, the street is the place to go. It is not the gallery and not the virtual world in the first place.

And as we know, also activist movements and flashmob activities use the web as a tool to interact but the "place were things happen" is the street, the public place, the city.

At the same time it also seems to be true that cities can have a deadening effect: The urban environment is a post-natural environment which gives us the impression that we as humans stand outside nature. This may be one of the reasons why people find it hard to act about environmental issues. The environment seems to be a place far away that has little to do with everyday life.

So, to sum things up, I came to the conclusion that the urban space is one of the hottest interactive platforms that we have for social transformation, but many people feel not connected. So I created this fun presentation which suggests various ways to develop a relationship to the wild nature that even the urban space still has, ways that at the same time also work to strengthen one's own creative muscles.

Postgrowth Society

2009-09-04T13:07:00.003+02:00

"Just as unlimited population expansion is untenable, so is unlimited GDP growth. Yet the open-ended commitment to economic growth persists, and it is now creating more problems than it is solving. It undermines jobs, communities, the environment, a sense of place and continuity, and even mental health. It fuels a ruthless international search for energy and other resources, and it rests on a consumerism that is manufactured by marketers and failing to meet the deepest human needs." - James Gustave Speth in "Doing Business in a Postgrowth Society", Harvard Business Review.

Transformation through Story Telling

2009-08-05T13:42:00.002+02:00

While on a rational level, most people agree that a fundamental shift in society and culture is necessary to tackle the problems of today, it seems very hard to make that leap on a personal level, leave alone a community or institutional level.
I was reminded of that when I watched the speech that UK prime minister Gordon Brown recently gave at the TED conference. He states that we are at a unique historic moment where we are more interconnected than ever before and we are also developing a global ethic, both promising preconditions for solving global problems - poverty, climate change, economic crisis - in a global way.The solution he proposed remained vague but he clearly saw a need for a central institution which would have the means to globally enforce agreements or regulations. While this may certainly be part of the solution, I missed concepts of co-creation, empowerment, collaboration and individual responsibility in his vision. Being inside a politician's story maybe did not allow him to see that new forms of governance would be central to such a solution, if it is not just to repeat the patterns of administrative institutions stricken by political power-struggles.

Another example for a solution that repeats past patterns is the idea of a British company to put RFID barcodes on trees so that controlling the sustainability of forests becomes more transparent. They even assume that tagging trees could play a role in fighting deforestation, and therefore, could be seen as a measure to stop global warming. But the underlying concept is still that we can care only for things that we can control and that nature has to be properly put into our warehousing system for us to see its value. An alternative to applying technical control mechanisms could be to bring forests and communities together, something that Roald Gundersen and Amelia Baxter are trying to do with their Community Supported Forests. Members will get a specific part of the forest where they "can camp, hunt and garden on the land. They can forage for mushrooms, garlic mustard and wild ginger. They can get firewood, sustainably milled lumber, landscaping stone or fresh spring water." And in doing that, they will have a chance to get to know the forest as a friend and not just as a distant resource. That's a very different story, right?

Recently I heard of the Dark Mountain Project, a literary movement to rewrite the stories that we base our assumptions on. "We aim to question the stories that underpin our failing civilisation, to craft new ones for the age ahead and to write clearly and honestly about our true place in the world."

Becoming aware of the narratives that we live by and re-inventing them is very much what we need, in my view, to have a new context for transformation - on a personal, community or even institutional level.

Green Jobs and Wealth

2009-07-28T07:21:00.003+02:00

"But some experts in economics and the energy industry say having more people work in alternative energy will actually lower our standard of living, by making energy more expensive. They say the public will need to balance how much wealth they're willing to sacrifice to protect the environment." - found here while researching about "green jobs".

Recognizing patterns

2009-07-20T22:38:00.003+02:00

"Recognizing pattern is one of humanity's greatest abilities. It is the basis of conscious awareness that brings cohesion to a chaotic world by allowing us to see contrast as well as similarity." -Maggie Macnab in "Decoding Design"

Story beneath...Barcoding Trees

2009-07-20T21:59:00.005+02:00

Last week Reuters reported about a British company that is barcoding trees to protect the forest:

"Deep in the world's tropical rainforests, workers are hammering thousands of barcodes into hardwood trees to help in the fight against illegal logging, corruption and global warming.

The plastic tags, like those on supermarket groceries, have been nailed to a million trees across Africa, southeast Asia and South America to help countries keep track of timber reserves.

Helveta, the British company behind the technology, says the barcodes will help firms comply with tough laws on importing sustainable timber into the United States and Europe.

They could also play a role in fighting deforestation, which accounts for about a fifth of global emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide. ...

"We bring transparency and visibility where historically that has probably been limited at best," Patrick Newton, Helveta's chief executive officer, told Reuters."

Sounds like a good solution? I am not so sure. To me that sounds like a reflex reaction to treat symptoms of a deeper pathology with the cures that we tare most familiar with: controlling, measuring, administrating. Nature is seen as something we can put a tag on, simply a resource. And that would be one of the memes that is being spread with this type of solution: Nature is a resource that we can only protect if we bring it into our warehousing system.

Maybe barcoding is a better-than-nothing solution for the time being, but generally speaking, it only enforces alienation from nature. Which is the real reason for thoughtless pollution or irresponsible exploitation of the ecosystem

Looking for the Story Beneath

2009-07-17T07:41:00.004+02:00

Storytelling is one of the big re-discoveries in communication. Books like "Made to Stick" tell that if you want the world to know your message you have to tell it in an accessible story, not with statistics and facts. Brain research supports this: We are more likely to remember content that we learned as part of a story (preferrably an emotional story), rather than from a list of "things to remember". In "The Meme Machine", Susan Blackmore even goes so far to suggest that our brains are so big because we needed the brain power to be better story tellers. Good story tellers increased their chances of survival.

In this context, it is easy to understand that there can be no fundamental change unless we start changing our stories.

Identifying the underlying story in the news, in our own actions is the first step in that direction - the ability to see the cultural meme, the archetypes and symbols is also what, in my view, empowers anyone a) to become a good trend watcher and b) to recognize that we can choose which stories we tell, which memes we spread.

The short documentary by below shows personal stories of people who have been hit hard by the financial crisis. People who realized that they have the choice to either remain in shock and feel victimized, or give their personal life story a new positive turn. Very inspiring!

(see related post "How to Cook Up the Future)

Creative Corporate Culture Reality

2009-07-16T09:24:00.003+02:00

"Most companies do a magnificent job of smothering the creative spark. Over the past five years we have probed the innovation strategies of 25 organizations in multiple industries and countries. Our findings are simple and somewhat disturbing, given the acknowledged necessity for innovation: Companies usually develop leaders who replicate rather than innovate. Thus rising stars realize that to be promoted, they need to mirror incumbent leaders." From: Finding and Grooming Breakthrough Innovators. Jeffrey Cohn, Jon Katzenbach, Gus Vlak, Harvard Business Review, Dec 2008

Cooking up the Future

2009-07-09T20:36:00.005+02:00

How To Cook Up The Future

View more documents from Ines Seidel.

I came up with this little "How to" after thinking about Empowerment.

Empowerment is certainly one of the key words of our time. We see the empowered web-user, the empowered consumer, the empowered employee, the empowered learner,... Empowerment leads to a certain demystification of the expert - the expert is valued not so much because of the facts that she knows but because she can facilitate others to behave in an expert way: teachers are to facilitate learners to teach themselves, leaders are to lead people to lead themselves, brands let consumers create their own brand experience.

What does or could empowerment lead to in the field of foresight consulting? And what is the role of the expert here?

I think that also in relation to THE FUTURE, the expert has to be demystified. Empowerment of everybody is necessary as everybody should understand that THE FUTURE is not something that happens to us, but is instead an experience that we create collectively, by choosing to live one way rather than another way.

Much like a soup can - for better or worse - be cooked by many cooks, we all create the context for the next-moment-experience together. Typically, without being aware of it. Conscious decision making could lead to better results, right?

Shopping a legal drug

2009-07-08T17:24:00.004+02:00

A website I noticed today: Shop around tours is a service “For People who live to shop and love to travel”. – Shop around tours offers guided tours for bargain shoppers e.g. Designer outlet shopping in Tuscany.

One testimonial statement of a (however briefly) satisfied shopper was on the landing page of the website: “You’ve created a wonderful environment for all of us bag-loving, shoe-hoarding, fashion-craving shoppers and we are all eternally grateful.” – Kate H. Arlington, VA

Hard to believe someone would really say this without irony. But it is a true statement of current reality: our environment is created for and by shopping addicts.

Wonderful? Eternally grateful? I am not buying this!

The Future

2009-06-29T14:43:00.001+02:00

"Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous." - Jim Dator, Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies

Creative Economy and Trojan Horses

2009-06-28T16:02:00.008+02:00

I just browsed through the United Nations Creative Economy Report 2008, which provides "empirical evidence that the creative industries are among the most dynamic emerging sectors in world trade." There is a huge number of similar reports on country, region and city level, which underlines the increasing role that creative enterprises have for the economy (especially today's economy that so badly needs to reinvent itself!) - and also the growing appreciation of this role.

The upgrading of creative folks to business people also has a disruptive potential for the economy, which hardly ever shows up in Creative Industries reports.

For one thing, fostering Creativity means encouraging a certain degree of chaos. This is easy to understand, as Creativity flows from a disregard of rules, from crossing boundaries, from experimenting, from challenging oneself (and others) continuously, and from cultivating a beginner's mind. In other words, creativity comes from continuous self-development, it is more a path than a gift.

No big news probably, when you think of creative professionals in arts, design, or architecture, which often work self-employed or in very small firms. They take care of their creative freedom within a self-defined system.

But as a growing number of people (categorized as the "Creative Class" by Richard Florida ) working in areas such as programming or services have chosen the route of creative empowerment (and are encouraged to do so), the anarchistic side of creativity needs to be able to play out in organizations with more traditional structures. Some of these traditional structures are already being replaced: Flexible working hours, inspiring office spaces and learning opportunities, are not unusual anymore. Yet, working (or rather: collaborating) with only a limited set of pre-given rules and with a larger degree of freedom is still a challenge and we can expect to see some unfamiliar approaches to this in the Creative Economy.

The other, even more disruptive feature is the role that creative workers see for themselves. In the mentioned reports, creative entrepreneurs are seen as growth engines and also as central knots in sustainable, thriving communities. Increasingly, creative professionals also see themselves as creators of an alternative future. That, too, is only logical, as the act of creating something - be it a dress, an ad or a user interface - is tied to making a conscious choice about how others will experience that dress, that ad or that user interface in the future. But creators today go even further. Robert Fabricant at design mind writes: "We’re experiencing a sea change in the way designers engage with the world. Instead of aspiring to influence user behavior from a distance, we increasingly want the products we design to have more immediate impact through direct social engagement." He calls this "Design with Intent". GK VanPatter of NextD strikes a similar tone when he describes the new level of design (Design 3.0) as Transformation Design - a "design approach that reimagines systems and takes leadership toward change in social and organizational structures and systems" (see an explanation at the on Social Design blog)

Examples abound and we've all already seen them in the field of media. Think of successful videos like The Story of Stuff, the HOME movie project, blogs like inhabitat or treehugger. All of this has been thought of by creative minds. What we see more and more today is creative people going out on the street, directly engaging with people in "public interventions" or enabling fellow citizens to see themselves as creators, too. One cool example is the bubble project by Ji Lee (see video above), who is also creative director at Google, another one the Free Beats in NY Central Park (see below).

So, what is the subversive element here? The creative people who contribute to the above examples are not in for money or fame. They are prototyping a world where you do not ask "what's in it for me" but "what can I give or how can I inspire". Sure, they need to live and they know their worth. But they are not likely to sacrifice their values for industrial growth. Again, it is easy to imagine this "values first" approach for freelancers or self-employed. But what if this trend catches on inside corporations? Embracing the Creative Economy could be like inviting Trojan Horses that will start a transformation, a cultural revolution, from within.

Bubble project and Free Beats spotted through freshcreation.

Semantic Conflicts and Orthographic Anarchy

2009-06-19T23:54:00.007+02:00

After reading about the social grammar of change (see Theory U by Otto Scharmer) I had an encounter with the semantics of social conflict today.

I was hiking with colleagues and the day was a bad choice as the weather was a variation of heavy rain, mist and just a few spells of sun. Finally sitting in the Panoramarestaurant on mount Wallberg, we did not get to see the scenic mountain panorama. But we got something more mystic and enchanting, at least this is how the view of the rising fog, crawling up alongside the mountain and rising into the sky, looked to me.

Was it really fog or should one speak of clouds? This is the question that led to a dispute between two of my colleagues: One insisted that what barred our view was fog, the other was convinced that in reality, the mist outside was a cloud. While the two discussed this, I realized that they actually had slightly different interpretations or semantics behind the same words. For the one, “fog” was what could be around you, while a “cloud” was further away (typically up in the sky, or potentially down in the sky when seen from a plane). For the other, “fog” was what materialized itself above surfaces while a “cloud” always formed in the sky. Down in our office, the two men would not even notice the uneven meaning they attribute to the same sequence of sounds. Up in the mountains, this slight distinctness became apparent (the mist was around us but appeared to have formed in the sky) and hence, a conflict arose.

Not a serious conflict, of course, but it brought home the familiar wisdom that much of the disputes and quarrels in our everyday life are actually about different uses of words and unnoticed misunderstandings. If we are able to go from dispute to dialogue (e.g. by applying the rules of nonviolent communication), we could probably more often than not uncover the deeper reason for conflict: Diverse meanings are associated to words or whole texts and we are not very conscious of this, we make vague assumptions about the intentions or interpretaitons of the other without asking for verification. Once these deeper layers of communication can be identified and laid open, finding “a common language” would be a lot easier.

Language and also how we use and understand it is fuzzy by nature and constantly evolving. It is only the dictionaries and grammar rules that make language look like something fixed. At school, pupils are trained to believe in these rules, they are taught that a sentence or a word can be used and written either correctly or incorrectly. Different contexts or different learning paths behind the word that an individual uses, play next to no role.

Which makes me wonder if Civilization 2.0, if we make it to this advanced level, would have a need to write down language rules. For the future society, it would be more important to foster communication “rules” or rather communication practices which allow people to lay open their semantics and interpretations as soon as they notice signs of misunderstanding. Probably there would be less mindless talk and more appreciation of diversity, as a result. Orthography might become an indicator of the historical context of a text. And individual orthography may be just as acceptable as the individual message of an author - any author, starting with the pupil in elementary school. (Written words may not even be as vital as we believe them to be today. Who knows, writing may be totally optional to learn...)

Come to think of it, signs for the end of orthographic rules can be found easily already today:

Many authors have developed an individual way of expressing their thoughts also through an individual orthography. That makes their texts harder to read. That also means a reader will automatically pay much more attention to every single word and its contextual meaning.
We hear that orthography of young people is getting worse because of texting. Txtng forcs U 2 rite n reed creatively. No rules, just be short.
I have read and heard time and again that more pupils leave school and more students leave university without proper basic reading and writing skills. Maybe this lack of internalized rules can translate into freemindedness or creativity? A radical thought, but hey...
Already today, keyboards are being replaced by touch screens. And when futurists say that we will stop typing or writing as everything can be controlled or communicated with spoken language or directly with thoughts, they may be talking of a very near future. Sensors and software that can comprehend language is already in use today, and also tools that can read the mind or respond to emotions already exist.

When written language becomes less important, so will grammar and orthography. This has implications basically for the way we learn foreign languages, but not for learning the mother tongue. (Sigh of relief ... no collective aphasia!).

On the other hand, semantics – the study of meaning - will become a lot more important, but not as a set of semantic rules, but rather as an awareness for context-based semantics and personal semantics.

The semantics of social conflict is replaced by a semantics of dialogue and awareness.

Magic Words

2009-06-14T10:26:00.008+02:00

Dealing with new developments and the need to change brings me ever closer to a topic that has been dear to me since my childhood: The fascination with language.

Language can define the borders of what we allow ourselves to see and think. But language can also open a door to new understanding and a wider awareness. When I decided to study linguistics - and not something that would have seemed more practical - it was because I hoped to uncover the mystery of language.

I was reminded of the power of words several times last week.

The first instance was in a in a workshop about the future of education. In the course of the project, participating companies would dive into emerging opportunities in education for them as individual companies but also as a network. But at this early stage, the point was to get a common understanding for all relevant developments that affect education. It was our belief that these developments were visible in all forms of learning, be it at school, university or in company trainings. Yet, time and again a debate started whether we should make a distinction between primary education and further education already now. It became clear that the words we used and our belief that developments affect learning in general were out of sync. We dominantly spoke of "students" and "teachers", thus evoking a primary education setting. A colleague had the clarity to suggest that we start using more general terms - "learner" and "educator". Language evokes scenarios and sometimes we are simply not aware of this.

On my flight back I picked up an issue of US Today and browsing through the pages, I got stuck at the headline "Fighting Age and Illness with all natural products" that turned out to be an advertising slogan for American Rena. Fighting? Was it really appropriate to use metaphors of struggle and aggression in this context? Age and Illness? Since I don't belief that growing old is similar to having a disease I found the conjunction of the two words manipulative. The scenarios that Reno was trying to evoke through language felt totally wrong and my interest in Rena was gone.

The heavy book that I am currently carrying around with me adds still another angle: In Theory U. Leading from the Future as It Emerges, Otto Scharmer uses grammar as a metaphor to describe shifts in social systems. Social grammar is described as "the hidden rules, structures, and inflection points that enable certain types of evolution and emergence to happen." By understanding and using this grammar, change can come into being. The question how to make the leap from observed developments to structural change is exactly, what is often puzzling and challenging for me today. So here I am again with applied linguistics and my choice of study makes more sense than ever :-)

From Sustainability to Beauty

2009-06-13T11:57:00.007+02:00

Talk to company representatives about Corporate Social Responsibility - CSR - and they are likely to see it as an important thing to integrate into their business practices, if that has not already been done. Talk to your neighbours or colleagues, i.e. to "normal" people about CSR, and they are likely to mistrust the whole concept as just another empty promise.

Mistrust is responsible for the seemingly fragile or sometimes nonexisting relationship of companies, brands, institutions or authorities towards their users, consumers, or citizens. Yet, without trust, communities cannot bring about change. We cannot even speak about communities, if there is no trust that knits the players (in CSR terminology: "stakeholders") together.

In terms of sustainability, Michael Braungart, a key proponent of the Cradle-to-Cradle-concept, puts his finger on the shortcomings of sustainability: Sustainability, as it is practiced today, has the empty promise, that people suspect to be there, often built into it. All the talk about reducing carbon footprint or using less toxic material or reducing waste still is about being a little less bad, it is just "guilt management and celebrating mediocrity", as Braungart puts it. More radical approaches are needed: Having a big footprint, but a positive one (like ants). Using no toxic material at all. Eliminating the concept of waste - what we call waste today should be (technical) nutrients. Design that follows these principles is no longer eco design or sustainable design or green design in Braungart's view, but Total Beauty Design ("If it's toxic it is not beautiful.")

Also among designers I noted that Beauty (without quotation marks!) is being charged with new meaning: Beauty stands for natural, unobtrusive design, it is timeless and functional, often biomimetic, it makes you feel connected to the Earth and to your fellow beings.

The great thing is that Total Beauty is a lot easier to communicate than CSR, as it is does not even need words. Beauty can be recognized through the eyes, through touching, tasting and smelling. When people stop trusting glossy PR brochures, they still trust their senses.

Are companies ready to trust their own senses?

The Slumdog Meme

2009-05-25T17:13:00.007+02:00

Watching out for trends and recognizing developments early on equals spotting memes that are fitter for survival than others. This thought (or meme) struck me as I was reading "The Meme Machine" by Susan Blackmore.

According to the theory memes, "like genes, are replicators competing to find space in our minds and cultures". If we stick with the idea of memes, then a large part of communication, of the beliefs we hold and the culture we adhere to, in fact, our whole identity is constructed of memes. We lend our energy to memes, imitate and spread them, but we are not the creators of them. Memes that can connect to other memeplexes (e.g. in the form of beliefs and ideas that a person already holds) have a better chance of survival than isolated memes.

Memeplex docking stations could for instance be used to explain the success of "Slumdog Millionaire". With success, I am not just referring to the eight Oscars that the British film won, but also the continued public interest in the life of the street children, the accelerated export of Indian goods that the search engine Alibaba ascribes to Slumdog Millionaire, and the celebrity status that the Indian actors now enjoy in the rest of the world (e.g. Freida Pinto becomes a L'Oreal face, Irrfan Khan on the cover of GQ).

Memeplex docking stations:

Empathy: A growing share of citizens found that they care for people in need - both far away (which may force a company like H&M to monitor working conditions in its supplying textile factories) as well as next door (e.g. by adding a human touch to the emergency department of a hospital as a volunteer). Being interested in the life of street kids fits nicely.
Fairytale ending: The underdog who wins not only money but also love is an all time favorite - but not necessarily in films that depict the harsh realities of slums! The unrealistic course of the story caused a lot of criticism for Slumdog, yet, it definitely is part of the success: People want the misery (including their own) to end with happiness and not with more depression. Personally, I'd say that giving people an optimistic vision is a noble cause these days - and the spread of various "acts of kindness" initiatives shows that this, too, is a successful memeplex.
Bollywood Fever: Bollywood movies have become popular outside of India and so have Bollywood dancing classes. Bollywood now attracts stars like Kylie Minogue and Wall Street Journal is telling us what managers can learn about leadership from a Bollywood dancing course. Which means Bollywood is in itself a very successful memeplex. While Slumdog Millionaire is not a true Bollywood film, it quotes several Bollywood elements, the most obvious maybe being the dancing scenes in the very end.
Indian culture as such is becoming interesting, as India is increasingly seen as a future super power. For instance, in Germany, the popular children TV programme "Sendung mit der Maus" recently dedicated its total airtime to documenting Indian family life for children (usually the broadcast is a mix of several short animated cartoons and mini documentaries.)

Slumdog may be forgotten in a few months (well, not so fast if the planned sequel becomes a reality), the carrier memeplexes may continue to influence our thoughts and culture, though not necessarily in the form they have today.

Picture: "Slumdog" vs "Bollywood" in Google Trends

Creative + Economy

2009-05-17T21:17:00.007+02:00

The Creative Economy. I did not like that phrase too much. To me, it lost its meaning from being said, written and powerpointed too often. Just one of those buzzwords. Until recently.

A few weeks ago I visited the town I went to school to - a beautiful, small town in the Eastern part of Germany. Strolling through the once busy mall had a sobering effect: Every second shop had closed, the remaining stores could not take away the air of neglect and depression. I wondered if the empty space could be put to some better use, at least as an interim solution.

The question is relevant for many small and big towns and city districts today. When consumption is low and commercial rents are still high, shops are closing, inviting decay and vandalism into the neighbourhood.

Many districts or landlords have already found an answer to the question what to do with empty storefronts: They rent the space at a low price or even for free to artists.

Especially in the U.S., storefront art is very common (see random examples here, here and here), the same can be said about the UK, where the government is now even funding such projects with a GBP 3 Million grant scheme.

That creative folks are often primary settlers who breath new life into run-down districts has been demonstrated before (e.g. in Berlin). More Governments, municipalities or local business alliances have understood the positive impact that artists have on local business - and are now purposefully supporting them. Jo Leahy, director of the Stroud Valley Artspace (UK) sees that creative residents may ultimately what it means to speak about a busy town. "It's another way of judging a town. We're used to measuring a place by how busy the cash tills are. This is about measuring somewhere by its ideas, by the things that people are making happen here." (quoted in the Guardian) - Apply this to Economy as a whole and you get the Creative Economy everybody is talking about!

Picture: Anelia Lazaroff, "Twilight" in an empty store in L.A. - part of the Phantom Galleries LA (see their flickr photostream here)

Team Work & Courage

2009-05-15T12:26:00.002+02:00

"One wonders if the crisis in the financial world today would be quite so catastrophic if more people had spoken out in their team meetings about what they knew to be wrongful practices. But again that brings us back to the hazards of courage. You'd like to think that people who do the courageous right thing and speak out will get their reward on earth as well as in heaven. But you don't always get your reward here on earth. While it's true that not being on a team can put your career on hold, being a real and committed team player, whether as a team leader, a deviant, or just a regular member who speaks the truth, can be dangerous business indeed." J. Richard Hackman in an interview published in HBR, May 2009 ("Why teams don't work")

Stop asking when the downturn will be over

2009-04-22T21:22:00.005+02:00

On every other business website you are being polled today about when you think the downturn will be over. Consultancies and research institutions chase headlines with surveys of executives or other "downturn experts" (like financial analysts) on that same question. And everyone is looking for signs of an upturn. Of course, when you search for these signs, you will find some. But is all this waiting for the end of the downturn really helpful?

The assumption behind the worried question about the duration of the downturn is that after a while, things will go back to normal. A bit more patience, a period of hardship, and then, alas! it will be business as usual and this feeling of vulnerability and uncertainty will go away. However, going back to 2006, 2007 or 2008 is the least likely thing to happen.

I think that our brains are playing tricks on us in this matter. Adjusting to a different concept is always costly for the brain and before it rewires its little nodes it prefers to filter out information that does not fit into the concepts that it invested in before. In this case, the dominating concepts are concepts of growth. Information that says you will NOT own a new car soon, you will NOT get a promotion and a salary raise, profits of your company will NOT pick up again surely cannot be true. Or at least, they cannot permanently be true. Says your brain. Well, I don't know exactly about your brain, but many of the surveys seem to have been filled out be people with brains that project the future as a linear continuation of the past, with just this awkward gap in between.

However, sticking with the old concept of growth is disabling as it leads to passively waiting and to being worried. Being worried is a waste of energy, though, energy that should be spent on agility, flexibility, adaption. Once we can accept that a fundamental change is happening, the fearful waiting can stop.

Learning for Life II

2009-03-19T19:06:00.007+01:00

The picture above shows police officers from Fort Payne and DeKalb County in an active shooter response course at an elementary school. (see full story here)

I am not going into the topic of security improvement vs school experience again. (see previous posting). What I find interesting about this picture is that it acknowledges that training works best in real-life-situations.

Practicing emergency and combat situations in close-to-real-simulations is nothing new. Why are immersive lessons still rare at schools and universities if they are such an efficient way to learn?

Learning for Life

2009-03-16T22:20:00.004+01:00

When you hear the word „SCHOOL“, what do you think of?
Joy? Encouragement? Acceptance? Trust? Love?

I don’t. Most of us don’t. And I realized how sad that is when I was flying to Helsinki and back last week. Or rather, when I read the newspapers, as I always do on the plane.

Somewhere between Düsseldorf and Helsinki a small article caught my eyes: In Tokyo, parents can track wether children safely arrive at school with a card that originally was developed as a ticket and payment card for public transport. When the child uses the RFID card to check-in at school or leaves a train station, or arrives back at home, the parent is notified with a text message or email. (See here)

Sounds like a good idea for parents? Hm. You could also see it as a service that lives off parental fear, a service that manipulates parents into feeling either “assured” or “worried” without making the way to school safer.

The other piece of news jumped at me and everyone else who passed by a German newspaper stand last Thursday: Tim K., a 17-year-old boy had murdered 16 people in a shooting spree that started at his former school in Winnenden, a small town in southern Germany. The boy was described as “inconspicious”, “average” and “shy” by those who knew him. Apparently, he did not have close friends and some suggested that he had been mobbed at school.

We need better security solutions, more stringent gun control laws, experts were quoted in the news. Other experts said that no security measures could have prevented the killings. It reminded me of the RFID security card in Tokyo: We long for more security, but technological solutions or legal restrictions may not be the answer.

Clearly, for Tim, school had been a place that was associated with problems, frustration, anger and hatred. Better security for the school would not have prevented these associations.
But imagine Tim had associated his former school with joy, encouragement, acceptance. It would have been impossible for him to even think of school in combination with shooting and killing.

For me, the massacre of Winnenden tells more about the current educational system than about gaps in security monitoring.

Schools that encourage children to be responsible actors and creators, rather than victims or recipients, schools where children feel accepted and loved and can develop their individual gifts may sound like a naive dream. Yet, I think societies must invest in these dreams, in educational reforms, school infrastructure and a holistic learning experience. Not only in order to prevent school massacres, but in order to instill creative energy, constructive power and respect for others in the next generation – qualities which our communities and in fact our earth need so badly.

Responding to the Downturn – with Compassion

2009-02-12T21:33:00.002+01:00

I am just summarizing a project about “Effects of the Downturn” – hundreds of weak and strong signals were collected* that are – directly or indirectly – related to the recession.

Reading through these observations has a depressing effect: Millions of people are losing their jobs. And those who don’t are worried about losing their jobs. The feeling of insecurity and uncertainty leads to frustration, sometimes to riots, sometimes to mental problems. The way of life that was taken for granted has become fragile, and as an effect we see downsizing and reduced consumption.

A lot has also been written about the opportunities that the downturn brings, and this is something I definitely believe in: There is an upside to every downside. Depression is not the only possible reaction.

Yet, one opportunity, one way of responding to the crisis is very often overlooked, also by me. That is surprising because it is actually about a very simple, very human reaction: Responding with compassion and empathy.

When a friend is worried and frustrated, you care for her, listen to her, cheer her up. Now we see many signals pointing to the same friendly, compassionate behavior – but coming from companies, employers and governments.

For instance Dunkin' Donuts, a restaurants chain in Florida, are offering customers a free cup of coffee every Wednesday throughout February. "We appeal to the consumer that earns a hard day's wages and wants a real, down-to-Earth, quality product," Dunkin Donuts announced. The new Chevrolet Aveo was advertised in credit-crunched London this month with a billboard advert made entirely from one-pence coins. The installation only lasted 30 minutes as hundreds of passers-by seized their moment to pick up a penny or two.(see a video here)
The fashion retailer Anthropologie (U.S.) is giving away styling tips in free “reinvention workshops” to help women get the most out of their existing wardrobe. “We wanted to share something really personal,“Anthropologie’s chief merchandising officer, Wendy Wurtzburger explained.
Coca-Cola is is launching a new global ad campaign with the claim “Open Happiness”, “hoping to appeal to consumers' longing for comfort and optimism at a time when the weakening economy is sapping soft-drink sales.” (WSJ). BusinessWeek reports today that “Indian CEOs take voluntary pay cuts to avoid layoffs.-“We will lead by example in taking the initiative,” an Infosys director is quoted. Besides showcasing leadership, such actions could help restore confidence among employees, the article confirms.

Of course, companies are under cost pressure and may not think they can afford to show compassion. But for one thing, showing compassion does not necessarily translate to giving away a free lunch. A message that simply acknowledges that “we’re in this together” can go a long way. And secondly, this is not a time to make big profits, but it may well be the time were companies can form lasting emotional bonds with their clients and employees and establish a level of trust that was hard to reach in the not so far away era of conspicious consumption and career hopping.

Coca-Cola’s Open Happiness campaign reminded me of a research project that the New York Times wrote about last December: A long time survey found that happiness is contagious and therefore, even strangers may cheer you up. Or in other words: You and I can influence how deep the depression is allowed to go. :-)

*at Finpro we use Trendwiki to collect weak signals and turn them into applicable foresight.

How to be a good consumer

2008-11-28T07:47:00.003+01:00

Stopping consumption and becoming aware of the motifs for consumption is the trend of today. Just stumbled across new evidence: Neil Boorman, author of Bonfire Of The Brands, made a clip for Buy Nothing Day 2008. It’s called ‘The Good Consumer’ and it shows how good consumers do their duty to keep the society from falling apart by following fashion, by replacing instead of repairing, by not sharing and so on.

spotted at freshcreation

Alternative to Mistrust

2008-11-27T22:06:00.007+01:00

Greenwashing, credibility of companies and new trends in marketing have been following me as topics over the last months. If you look at these issues closely, they are all related to trust. What constitutes trust and how do you get others to trust you or your products are topics that fuel research and fill racks of books.
It appears that the more researchers find out about the mechanics of trust, and the more companies or marketers apply this knowledge, the more people feel manipulated. Which makes it in turn harder to gain their trust.

Taken to the extreme this build-up of attack and defence would lead to a society of mistrust.

Or alternatively, to a society were people understand as much (and more) about their usually unconscious decision making processes as neuroscientists and marketing specialists. Given the choice, I would like to live in a conscious society, were people do trust each other but on a thoroughly conscious level. The word "trust" would become obsolete as there is also no mistrust, just clarity.

And as I was reading "The Back of the Napkin" by Dan Roam, the idea of creating a picture story about trust and mistrust formed in, well 3 evenings :-)

Little Picture Book Of Trust

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: trust mistrust)

Ready for Post Materialist Consumption

2008-11-25T22:14:00.006+01:00

The idea to stop buying stuff was once the preserve of radical “freeganes” or anti-globalists. Now the concept is getting high level support: Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and CEO of WPP, the world’ No 2 advertising group after Omnicom, was reported to say “Our view, which is counter to what you expect our industry to argue, is that conspicuous consumption is not productive, and should be discouraged.”
Futurologist Faith Popcorn might take Sorrell as proof for the trend she dubbed "Karma Capitalism" trend: Consumers, driven in part by economic imperatives and their own growing sense of social responsibility, are gravitating toward cheaper stores and more environmentally friendly products and are shunning consumption. (see this article)
Harvard Business School professor John Quelch found a new category of consumers: The middle-aged “Simplifiers” who are more interested in experience than in possession. (see more here)

“Live simply” is the new motto – either out of choice or out of necessity. “Live simply and let others simply live” could in fact be the formula to erase many of mankind’s problems.

However, at this point it gets complicated because when some people decide to live simply, others lose their profits or their jobs or the welfare net that they relied on. And so governments run for help with bailout money and the vow to incentivize consumption.

But it does not seem to work so far. Brian Gendreau, a strategist at ING Investment Management in New York analyzed that "normally markets are driven by fear and greed. Now it's fear and fear." Getting greed (as the desire to consume more and more) back into the system seems to be the only solution to the current crisis that governments and companies can imagine. Greed is the familiar. The unfamiliar only causes more fear.

Many consumers – or lets call them citizens – seem to realize that the situation does not call for a re-installation of greed. Governments should stop denying that reality and save their money for more urgent projects. Face the harsh reality of the end of growth through consumption and downsize with honesty and empathy. Face the fear in the market and learn from "sociopreneurs" how to overcome its numbing effects - and that making business may be rewarding without huge profits.

Picture from Greengaged via The Idea Feed

Growth

2008-11-24T08:41:00.003+01:00

"If growth, of whatever kind, were to go on and on, it would eventually become monstrous and destructive. Dissolution is needed for new growth to happen." - Eckart Tolle in "The Power of Now" (1999). Eckart Tolle does not write about economics, yet, the statement sounds like it was based on the observation of current economics, the excess of consumerism, ensuing financial crisis and ecological destruction.

Cool: Being offline

2008-10-27T19:49:00.006+01:00

Using social media has become a mainstream activity - this is at least what surveys like Social Media Tracker wave 3 (byUniversal McCann) tell us. If that is truly so, being active in networks, blogs, tweets etc. must be already yesteryear's fashion to the trendsetters and early adopters. Its simply not cool to be main stream!

In fact, the world is ripe for a counter trend to constant online activities, since constant networking also means perpetual disruption which translates to stress and productivity loss.

But how can anyone who makes a point of being part of an elite of forerunners show that offline is the new black?

One way of going offline with style would be to turn logging out into a luxury. In a way, power napping in spas (like Yelo in New York) or with special equipment (like the napshell or the EnergyPod) offers just that.

Another idea could be to have a zero communication service (by telecommunication providers ?)which holds back all communication in a defined area for a selected time. At a premium price, of course. Have not seen this yet but it is just a question of time...

Companies can also reserve rooms where employees can work completely uninterrupted. Would it not feel like a privelege to work for a company that frees staff from stress?

At any rate, stating that one decided to quit a network or an online habit may become just as main stream as joining one of the community services. As an added value, such a statement adds an aura of no-nonsense down-to-earth rationality to the person who made the statement.

Come to think of it, such a statement started yesterday's Iconoculture newsletter: "I committed Twittercide the other day. And while I'm sure it was disappointing to the couple hundred Twitter followers who had gotten used to updates on what I ate for dinner (usually lasagna) or my level of exhaustion (high), I retired my account for many reasons — one of which was the fact that I wasn't having much fun with that aspect of my identity anymore."

Related: Communicate Less

Picture by OmirOnia (sxc)

Idea: Positive Thought Detection

2008-10-22T22:30:00.003+02:00

Coming back to the story about how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's is developing a sensor system that predicts "hostile thoughts" in people remotely (see TrendtoGo)... Why not develop a system that detects friendly thoughts? Heck, thats what we need in a downturn! I would like to see regions with most friendly thoughts on a Google Map!

The Brain and The Truth

2008-10-22T21:14:00.005+02:00

At the beginning of the year, a pundit at Harvard Business Review predicted that lie detection would become a business application soon. It was not far fetched at all.

At TrendtoGo I have already written about how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's is developing a sensor system that predicts "hostile thoughts" in people remotely. While these sensors at the moment "only" scan body functions like pulse, facial expressions and breathing patterns, the next step obviously will be to include brain scans.

Brain scans already were used as evidence in court in India: "In June, in a murder case in Pune, in Maharashtra State, that a judge explicitly cited a scan as proof that the suspect’s brain held “experiential knowledge” about the crime that only the killer could possess, sentencing her to life in prison," NYT wrote in this article.

Scanning brain activity may the pathway for better human - machine interaction. This is at least what the company Emotiv is betting at: "Emotiv has created technologies that allow machines to take both conscious and non-conscious inputs directly from your mind." - You can see their prototype in the picture - a wireless headset which detects brain waves, facial expressions, body language, and movement to have direct control over computer functions and processes. The idea is to use the headset for gaming, but obviously, applications can be manifold. The company is hoping to have the devices in the stores before chrismas.

There are many more examples that show how close we are at communicating directly from our brains. How sure we are that what happens in our brains tells more about the truth than our words could.

The interesting thing is that researchers who study learning and long term memory also found out that our brains actually are not the key to an objective truth. Each time we upload an old memory into our short term memory, we modify the story a bit. We don't distort our past consciously, it just happens. Researchers also found that every one of us perceives the same piece of reality - be it a football game or a book - differently, depending on the beliefs that we hold and how much we cling to those beliefs.

It will be interesting to see how the commercialization of brain scans especially in the "truth business" will handle the fact that truth is not objective as we are definitely bound to find out more about the quicksilver nature of "truth". Sure enough, there is something like a discernible lie. But sure enough, people who don't lie about an incident will still have slightly different perceptions of this very incident. They may differ even though no one was lying.

Actually, different perceptions or interpretations of reality are not a new finding. Nevertheless, people's everyday behavior (and I am also talking about myself) does not show that we have understood this phenomenon. The current commercial interest in the brain's inner workings may force a wider public to accept the reality of various realities. :-)

What will the common reaction be? Quarrels as well as wars arise over the issue of being right. Will mankind learn and accept that there is no such thing as "being right" as opposed to "being wrong"? To me, the consequence seems to be that all opinions, especially the opinion of "the others" should be welcomed as yet another expression of the truth/of reality.

Personal Genius & Leadership

2008-10-20T20:53:00.005+02:00

"Many leaders think that only 10% of their employee population can contribute at a high level. That kind of thinking creates a culture of mediocrity and marginal achievement. If every leader and manager could embrace the fact that every employee, regardless of their ethnicity, gender, or educational background, is capable of greatness and possesses personal genius, can you imagine how that might change employee attitudes and actions on the job?"- Stephanie Chick in an interview at BusinessWeek

Life after the Crunch

2008-10-17T19:37:00.003+02:00

After I wrote the post about how the downturn affects services I accidentally saw the Slideshare competition on Credit Crunch.
To be honest, the credit crunch as a phenomenon does not interest me much, but how it affects you and me really intrigues me. So I put this short presentation together:

Life After the Crunch

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: economics crunch)

Impact of Downturn on Services

2008-10-15T09:09:00.002+02:00

Yesterday I was asked if there are any news reports on the impact of the downturn on the service industry in Germany.

I could not find anything specific. The German media are full of stories, of course, but the main concern at the moment is on how long and deep the recession will hit Germany, what it means to GDP growth and unemployment. The industry that gets most attention probably is the car industry.

Consumer confidence in the U.S. has cracked much earlier than it did in Europe. So, based on the "weak signals" I gathered from there it can be deduced that service industry will suffer - but there are also new service demands.

U.S. consumers cut spending on extras (including services like eating out, having someone to mow the lawn etc.) and spend more time at home + with family.
From my "signal collection" I see evidence for growing need for services that support:

Financial security: One of the biggest questions is "where is my money still save"? And another one "where can I earn money"? (An interesting idea to the last question are "gold parties" - modelled after Tupper parties, but instead of buying plastic boxes you get money for gold jewelry in the assuring company of friends in your own house).
Alternative ownership models: e.g. car sharing, second hand shops, renting toys, buying a stake in farm land and work there during leisure time,...
Enjoying the home: Americans (and also many Europeans) traveled less during the summer. Their attention turns to house + garden. Interest e.g. in courses/services related to gardening, cooking, pets, bike repairing,...
Health: it seems that demand for dental services (more teeth grinding, seriously) and psychological consultations went up. Also in health sector “help to help yourself” is seen as having potential
Professional qualification seen as the best way to face threat of unemployment. One growing field is e.g. brain training
Security: rising theft and other more threatening delinquencies leave consumers as well as companies and cities in fear. Everything that helps to track “out of the way” behavior (including panic) and helps guard against offenses has potential

What leaders can learn from analysts

2008-10-05T20:18:00.003+02:00

In current projects around the future of work one subject constantly comes to the surface: The demand for a new type of leadership. Once you look for it, you will find loads of advice on how to be a better leader, project manager, C-level executive.

Recently, I gave a training to other market analysts (mainly), which lead me to think about the distinction between a good market analyst and the better analyst. (To avoid confusion, I am not talking about financial or investment analysts, but "information professionals")

It struck me that some traits I would want to see in an analyst I would also like to see in a leader.

Be 100% dedicated (read: passionate & committed). For a market analyst it can be quite a challenge to be interested: Can you get excited about the heating pipes market? And next month about e-commerce software vendors? I try to see unfamiliar or all-too-familiar subjects as a chance to broaden my horizon. Identify the forces at play in the given segment- and all of a sudden, it all becomes very interesting. The results of an analysis always show whether someone was just doing a job - or really working through the task with dedication and curiosity. One might assume that leaders are passionate about what they do (being a leader included). Experience shows that passion is not part of the standard configuration.
Learn from others. For an analyst, having experience in an industry is nice. However, often you don't have the experience or at least not enough to answer a request by revisiting your stored knowledge. In fact, experience may even stand in your way to comprehend novel developments. That is why I hold the ability to listen without presuming and the ability to learn from other's opinions without looking for confirmation as more virtuous than experience. And it is this open-minded attentiveness that suits a leader, too. It comprises valuing diversity, listening to and encouraging feedback, especially critical feedback.
Make it simple. Attention to detail is a precondition for delivering a convincing analysis of the competitive environment of a client. But it is only half the work. Finding numerous data points and pieces of detail will be totally worthless if this information is not interpreted. An important part of an analyst's work is to simplify detail so that a bigger picture emerges which finally allows to make wise business decisions. That is, after all, the point of having a market analysis done, right? And the same goes for the messages of a leader. I don't want to read through power point presentations and detailed memos in order to figure out what managers or project leaders want me to do or not to do. "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." (Albert Einstein) - holds for market analysts as well as leaders.
Let others look good. Typically, market analysts work in the background, they are not the stars of an organization. Often, other colleagues or team mates deliver the key messages of the analysis to the client. They will value a market analyst, who supports their mission, who gives them the necessary background information so that they look good when it is "show time". A manager's role is different from that of support staff, but still, I'd prefer to see a manager supporting (rather than ordering) his subordinates to reach their goals.

Out of the Box

2008-09-11T09:47:00.003+02:00

"Fulfillment doesn't come from clearing hurdles others set for you; it comes from clearing those you set for yourself." -Robert S. Kaplan in "Reaching Your Potential", Harvard Business Review July 2008. I like the statement as it relates to the pleasure that comes from "leaving your comfort zone".

Living in "the One"

2008-08-31T16:25:00.007+02:00

In the video below, Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired magazine, talks about the future of the web. His starting point is that the World Wide Web is just around 5000 days old. And yet, it has already transformed from a net where computers link to each other to a web in which pages link to each other. The next steps will be interlinking data, ideas, whole databases and physical objects. As a result what we now know as the Web will transform into the Internet of Things in the next 5000 days. The Internet of Things will possibly be more like an organism, and we are a part of this encompassing "One".

Not only the idea of "the One" is interesting but also how Kelly supports his vision. He refers to the dated vision from 5000 days ago that the future would be about "TV, but better". This has proven to be a wrong prediction - and what can (or must?) be learned from this false prediction is that something that appears impossible today has a likelier probability than something that is within the confines of our today's perception of reality. In that sense "the internet, but better" is not a likely end point of the next 5000 days.
Kevin Kelly also compares our total dependence on the alphabet today to the total dependence on "the One" that we may experience in the future: It will not be frightening, it will be the usual.

In a way, we have already started to ask "the One" about ourselves. Look at Gartner's prediction that trend watching will become a must for many companies in the future (see this posting). Demand for behavior monitoring is fuel for tools that can intelligently make sense of the blogs, comments, news that are being produced every day through semantic processing. Such tools already exist (e.g. Audience Wisdom of Active Inspire) and they will learn to become better.

Now, here some food for thought: When we will be totally connected to "the One" we will forget that we are connected. When we never plug out, we will lack a notion of being plugged in.

What if that has already happened and we are so wired into "the One" (or call it "the Matrix" :-) that we cannot even imagine what it is like to be outside? Well, I don't know but at any rate this is fuel for the Simulation Argument that I mentionend in an earlier post.) And, yes, I would like to plug in and out according to my own choice...

Video found through freshcreation

Credibility

2008-08-31T15:01:00.002+02:00

"If we're trying to persuade a skeptical audience to believe a new message, the reality is that we're fighting an uphill battle against a lifetime of personal learning and social relationships." - Chip Heath and Dan Heath in "Made to Stick". They suggest that Credibility is the golden path to make one's message heard in a skeptical environment, and describe ways to achieve credibility.

Futurist Associations

2008-08-31T14:45:00.002+02:00

Some time ago I made a little overview on networks/associations for futurists. Maybe helpful also for others:

International Institute of Forecasters. http://forecasters.org/ – Membership is $120 a year with the benefit of getting their “Journal of Forecasting”, their newsletter (called Oracle) and the magazine “Foresight” for free. (see index here http://forecasters.org/foresight/index.html) They have an annual conference with high-profile speakers. On the whole maybe a bit scholarly, but certainly interesting!
Association of Professional Futurists (http://www.profuturists.org/) - “Our members provide a unique perspective to anticipate and influence the future. We provide network and community building opportunities for best practice sharing and professional growth. We are setting the standard of excellence for professional futurists.” Membership is $195 or $500 for the whole organization.” They are also interesting, but maybe more so for someone in U.S., in order to benefit from their community and teaching offers (they are based in Waltham, Massachusetts).
World Future Society (http://www.wfs.org/ ). Membership is only $49 a year. Members have several benefits in the form of a newsletter (Futurist Update), the bimonthly magazine “The Futurist” – seems to be widely read by foresight producing people - , the quarterly research publication “Futures Research Quarterly” and discounts on events and conferences. – Probably the association with best value for money :-)
European Futurist Conference (http://www.european-futurists.org/) is not an association, but a conference - next time end of October 2008 in Lucerne. The member list of the advisory board that organizes the conference reads like a Who’s Who of European trend researchers and foresight consultancies. (see http://www.european-futurists.org/wEnglisch/who_we_are/adwisory_board.php). Attending the conference does not come cheap, though: It would cost 1200€ to attend both days (see program here) .

Do you know of other transnational networks for mingling with futurists? Let me know!

A Quantum View of the World

2008-08-21T17:44:00.005+02:00

Modern physics tells us that everything is relative, and if you look hard, you find that substances are not made out of atoms and electrons, but out of nothing. Or rather, out of relations between nothing. Which is information, knowledge. (Yes, we're living in a knowledge driven society :-)

I find this "quantum view of the world" as amazing as I find it hard to grasp. In this short video, laboratory scientist Dean Radin explains it so that even I can understand it a tiny bit better.

The video can be found on the global oneness project website, which is in itself a website worth browsing through: www.globalonenessproject.org

Stay hungry, stay foolish

2008-08-18T13:32:00.003+02:00

Steve Jobs’s Stanford Commencement Speech.

Steve Jobs tells 3 stories from his life. Core message: Stay hungry, stay foolish.
Simply Great.

Bridging Uncertainty

2008-08-04T21:28:00.004+02:00

Can living with uncertainties be trained? Can you test how it feels like to think only of what you are just about to do? Instead of thinking of all the future plans and past mistakes, as we routinely do?

The Magical Bridge, a project by Michael Cross, might be a useful way to experience a level of uncertainty (moving onwards without having control over the route) and attentiveness (concentrate only on the next step): You have to get on the first step of the bridge to make the next step appear. And when you go to the next step the former step dispappears.

Filed it under chindogu, unuseless thing...

Spotted on freshcreation

HOW TO..prepare for the future?

2008-08-04T11:54:00.003+02:00

Reading "Inevitable Surprises. A survival guide for the 21st Century" five years after its publication has the advantage of knowing a few more details about 2008 than Peter Schwartz could foresee when he wrote the book. Well, 2008 was not too much in his focus anyway, he was thinking even further ahead into the 21st Century. With most of his predictions he would still be right. Although one wonders, if he would place his weights differently.

For instance web2.o and the empowerment of users. Today, the new technology combined with new consumer behaviours are seen as having game changing implications for all aspects of society. Signs of wikinomics were clearly visible already in 2003, but not worth special attention to Peter Schwartz. And maybe rightly so, the discussions seem a bit over-hyped.

When Peter Schwartz predicted the "Long Boom" he warned that this boom would be threatened by downturns, terrorrism, the pressure on middle class and other factors. Today, scarcity of resources, financial crises and the feeling of being at risk are slowing down consumption in the West. The Long Boom looks more like an alternative to a long phase of Downsizing, at least in the Western world.

When Schwartz emphasized the "rogue superpower" role of the U.S., did he underestimate China and the general shift of the center of gravity towards Asia?

These are just thoughts though, I may be more under the influence of circumstances than I am aware of.

Anyway, the most valuable part of "Inevitable Surprises" is the advice Peter Schartz offers at the end of the book. How to prepare for the future?

Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence system. Keep observing signs and discuss implications with others.

Cultivate a sense of timing. Develop a feeling for how fast changes are happening.

Indentify in advance the kinds of "early-warning indicators" that would signal that a change is rapidly upon you. Look out for these signals.

Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction. Practice discarding counterproductive units, agencies, politics, values... . Learn how to handle the pain of disruption (and embrace the creativity that comes from it)

Try to avoid denial. When developing versions of possible futures some of those futures tend to be more discomforting. Don't pretend that these futures are the most unlikely anyway. Take the uneasiness as a signal for mental blinders.

Think like a commodity company. There inevitably are fat and lean years.

Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgment that new situations require. Know the limits of your knowledge and experience.

Place a very, very high premium on learning. Failures to adapt often are failures to learn from earlier mistakes.

Place a very high premium on environmental and ecological sustainability. Not just for the obvious reason. Sustainable behaviour facilitates learning about side effects and 2nd order consequences of actions.

Place a very high premium on financial infrastructure and support. Have safety nets in place.

Cultivate connections. Going through transitions is easier with supporting connections than alone.

Greatest Risk in Life is Riskless Living

2008-08-03T22:28:00.004+02:00

Watch Robert Sharma, CEO of the training and coaching firm Sharma Leadership International and author of bestsellers on leadership and life advice ("The Monk who sold his Ferrarri"; "The Greatness Guide") . Inspiring message. Simply put: Take action before your life is over. Take the risk to make mistakes. Don't be discouraged by criticism and the baby steps you make in the beginning.
Also another good example for a presentation with heart and soul!

Found through:extendlimits

Denial

2008-07-24T09:04:00.002+02:00

The dominant intellectual strategy that people bring to bear on the future is denial. - Peter Schwarz in "Inevitable Surprises". Don't be mainstream! :-)

Review: Anatomy of Trends

2008-07-23T08:35:00.003+02:00

Just finished reading "Anatomy of a Trend" by Henrik Vejlgard. (find it here at Amazon). The cover was promising:"In Anatomy of a Trend, pioneering trend sociologist Henrik Vejlgaard reveals this startling truth: there are actually predictable patterns behind every trend." I was not startled at all, but I was immediately hooked.

However, Vejlgard's interest in trends is narrower then could have been guessed from the book's title and cover. His main focus is on changes in style and taste, i.e. things that would be described as "trendy". Something like mobile microblogging, playgrounds for seniors or "staycations" - developments that could also be called trends - do not occur in Vejlgard's Anatomy.

Vejlgard entertains with a wide array of interesting examples - ranging from the history of specific haircuts to the rise and fall of fashion labels. Even when he ventures into more mundane fields like microbrewing, Vejlgard fails to connect the emerging trend pattern to the existing needs and desires in a society that this trend is thriving on.
In his model, trends spread from trend creators to trend setters and trend followers and - in some cases - to mainstream. He identifies the usual suspects among the trend setters and the trend setting cities and other pre-condititions for turning a fad into a trend.
In Vejlgard's view trends come about mainly as a reaction to mainstream or simply because trendsetters have a need for perpetual change. Although "megatrends" are mentioned, Vejlgard refrains from connecting them to his trends. He claims that megatrends are hard to predict and would fill a number of books to analyse. Well. I would not subscribe to that notion. His exclusion of megatrends is a strange inaccuracy, given that he is establishing a list of cues that help to determine whether something new will likely turn into a trend or not.

Vejlgard is also not at ease with the effects of web2.0 and social media. Only at the very end does he ponder whether the internet will change or speed up the trend process described in his model. He concludes that no, there will be no changes.

"As the world becomes more individualized, with media to suit individual needs, fewer people will read the same media, and this means that a less-varied group of people will get the same information at the same time. And this will make it more difficult for a trend to gain momentum." Others have described this trend towards individualization of trends (yes, it is a trend too - a megatrend, in V.'s veiw) as an effect of the "long tail" and called it "microtrends". As Vejlgard eliminates megatrends, he once again cannot see how the trend process is influenced by these bigger currents.

On the whole:

Some good points that can be transferred to a more general or more analytic model for describing how trends come into being. Probably perfect reading for aspiring fashion trend spotters.
Some disappointment that "Anatomy of a Trend" does not put a trend or new behavioral pattern into its socio-economic context and is focussing only on the trendy trends.

Beware of the Hippos!

2008-07-21T19:37:00.005+02:00

Hippo's are said to be quite dangerous. I've only met them in the zoo, so I don't really know... Well, but there are also other HIPPOs around and they are dangerous, too. Hippo is an acronym for "highest paid person's opinion" and, unfortunately, these hippos tend to kill all other opinions. Sometimes unknowingly, and usually to the disadvantage of that person.

Brandtao wrote that, with one simple rule, P&G avoids the killer tendency in hippos:

Hippos say “I think…” It’s not uncommon for everyone to then fall into line with the Hippo’s view, possibly without even airing their own. Often the more junior clients will have little ability to influence their senior staffer, who has now publicly ommitted to a view, as the boss would lose face and isn’t open to discussion.

In variance to this, one management technique used by P&G, amongst others, during reviews of proposals and ideas with their agencies came to mind. It involves letting the most junior member of the marketing team present at a meeting to comment first. They are followed by the others, ascending in order of seniority; leaving the final comments to be spoken by the most senior person within the team. Sometimes 3 or 4 others may have commented before the Hippo speaks.

This approach has 4 effects.
1. It ensures everyone involved airs their opinion, even the most junior.
2. The less senior staff prove their ability, as they speak before the boss.
3. The meetings are more consensual in feel.
4. The most senior person gets to pick over the arguments and comments expressed by their team before uttering a word. At which point they may unify the response, focus on the most important points and speak with authority and insight that can appear more sage-like.

Sounds like a great meeting recipe that brings out the best in everyone - and makes meetings less of a waste of time (even if they may take longer that way).

Picture: runrunrun/sxc

What if Ikea ran an airport...

2008-07-18T07:24:00.007+02:00

Cracked.com ran a photoshop contest, asking what everyday household objects would look like if Batman was put in charge of the design. This coffee-maker is one of the 20 best suggestions - see them all here.

I found similar mix-it ideas at a Wikinomics posting. What if the US government was run by Apple? One of the suggestions: “In God We Trust” would be changed to “Getting Things Done”.

What if the United Nations were run by Google? "The Kyoto Protocol would be restructured with targets for member nations tied to the number of servers each country possesses. " Not bad.

Man, I like this game! What about a batman themed hairdresser? Bat-shaped mirrors and chairs, black dyes only, rubber gowns,... What if Ikea ran an airport? DIY security check, a place with toys in every departure lounge - see more suggestions at the brainr I created. How about a World of Warcraft fitness studio? Now that one reminds me of the "Jedi Gym" featured in a YouTube video:

Idea Dispenser

2008-07-15T20:54:00.004+02:00

Jake Bronstein invented a vending machine for fun ideas (the Fun-O-Meter) and tested it at several locations in New York (here it is at Time Square). Read his report at zoomdoggle.

An idea dispenser could be exactly what people in the knowledge economy need :-)

Spotted at swissmiss.

Brain Management

2008-07-13T21:43:00.002+02:00

"The ugly truth is that any assault on human brain cells is an assault on competitiveness." - John Medina, Brain Rules

Mix it!

2008-07-13T21:16:00.004+02:00

One great recipe to fuel brainstorming is mixing (seemingly) unrelated industries/ products/ devices/ services/ lifestyles/.... Here is an inspiring example by Jan Vormann, who filled cracks in walls with Legos in Italy.

Found through: Make

Simplicity!

2008-07-04T20:58:00.002+02:00

“If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” — Albert Einstein

found at everythingontheinternetistrue

Famous Failures

2008-06-27T14:43:00.001+02:00

Tony Robbins: Why we do what we do, and how we can do it better

2008-06-27T07:53:00.008+02:00

Great presentation about the art of fulfilment and the "invisible forces" that motivate everyone's actions (Certainty, Uncertainty, Significance, Connection, Growth, Contribution). Also a look into the mind (and heart) of a model "Socialpreneur"...

Oh ...and Robbins high-fives Al Gore in the front row
Source: TED

Ingredients of Trust

2008-05-30T21:37:00.002+02:00

Economist Intelligence Unit published a "recommended reading" survey on business collaboration and the role of trust. Some predictable outcomes:

Trust is seen as a key factor in collaboration, but the reality is often disappointing (classic difference between the ideal world and reality)
Face to face collaboration is superior to virtual collaboration
Good collaborators view their co-collaborators or partner organizations more positive – which underlines that positive attitude makes a good collaborator, and a happier one at that.

What I found interesting are the qualities that were used to break down trust:
Honesty, Willingness to exchange information, Ethical behavior, Shared objectives, Motivation, Respectfulness towards others, Positive Attitude, Ability to do a job well and Consideration of others were the most important factors, in this order. Less important according to the survey are expertise, communication skills, intelligence, experience, and whether someone works for a reputable organization. Experts in an organization are not necessarily trustworthy collaborators…
– These factors, especially the high-ranking ones, are interesting because if you want to improve trust, these are qualities you need to work on.

What is missing in the listing (because it is even more elusive!) is body language. Body language tells more about relations between two people than they may be consciously aware. Good collaborators intuitively will embody (in the true sense) openness and empathy. Unfortunately, most of this gets lost in virtual collaboration. This might be the main reason why virtual will never equal face to face collaboration.

...but with a little help, at least some of the body language finds its way back into virtual communication - emoticons may not be considered good style in business communication, but I am sure it helps. :P

Thanks for alerting me to the EIU survey to knowledgefutures

Communicate less

2008-05-30T13:37:00.004+02:00

Communication, communication, communication. That seems to be the mantra when it comes to good team management, successful organizational change and the much sought-after collaboration. Tools from emails to wikis, Skype to Twitter are enabling communication everywhere, anytime at low cost. – But if you get the idea that communication should flow continuously, you are in danger of receiving perpetual, ubiquitous chatter (i.e. noise) instead of high-quality interaction. Communication should come in small, efficient dosages. And just as “slow food” or “slow transport” are supposed to bring quality back into our eating and travel habits, “slow communication” could raise the productivity at work - and even the indulgence in work!

Slow communication – some fragments

Switch out: 37signals, the web2.0 company behind popular collaboration tools like basecamp and campfire advises “alone time” of uninterrupted work as the means to safeguard productivity (see their publication Getting Real). E.g. no telephone and email between 9.00 and 14.00. Some companies like U.S. Cellular try to solve the problem by introducing zero-email-days (see this article at USAToday.)
Opportunities: Michael Arrington, famous Techcrunch blogger complained he received more than 2000 emails a day – and he saw this as a business opportunity: “The long term answer is that someone needs to create a new technology that allows us to enjoy our life but not miss important messages. If I knew what that solution was, I’d quit this blog and go do it.” Yes, there is money to be made and some already do it – like Timothy Ferris, whose book The 4-Hour-Workweek became a hot selling item at Amazon – he also advised to radically cut down inefficient communication.
Meetings: One way to achieve this is spending less time with meetings. The FT recently gave the anti-meeting movement some space: “If three people meet in a corridor and discuss a project for five minutes, they have had a meeting, and probably an effective one. But most meetings are seen as immovable blocks in diaries.” Bill Daniels, chief executive of American Consulting & Training is quoted with views on the cost-side of meetings: "[Some] meetings are very expensive. Not only do you have all the people in the room, but for every hour you spend in the meeting, there's five to 10 hours getting ready.” Nevertheless, he also says that meetings are needed to build teamwork.

Helping employees avoid inefficient communication should be in the interest of every company (inefficient meetings are not just expensive and unproductive but also never climate friendly!) and therefore a management topic. But still, everyone probably needs to find their own individual balance between too much and too little. I personally find lack of communication much more frustrating than communication overkill, which at least gives me a chance to pull the plug.

Collaboration Incentives

2008-05-03T22:08:00.007+02:00

Forrester Research predicts that Enterprise 2.0 applications will be a market worth $4.6 billion globally by 2013. Which basically says that it is a hype in 2008.
Anyway, there will be an added $$$ market for training & consulting: Even though web2.0 applications are pretty common nowadays– e.g. 73% of internet users globally are reading blogs according to a UniversalMcCann survey – that still does not make web2.0 users good collaborators. While sharing and working together may come natural to the “net generation” who grew up with internet and mobile phone, the same cannot be said of older employees.

But how do you teach collaboration? One way seem to be multiplayer online games: A recent HBR article described how online multiplayer games can be used for leadership training and for simulating team structures. The authors concluded that “nonmonetary incentives built into a game economy strongly motivate individuals to accomplish group aims.”

What’s wrong with monetary incentives? Research - e.g. by Adrian Furnham, a Behavioral Psychologist , author of “The Psychology of Money” - found that that the concept that better paid people are more productive and happy does not tie in with the evidence found in the workplace. In fact, money is more likely to be a cause of dissatisfaction rather than satisfaction. (see here).
Money may also not be the best motivation to get high quality contributions in an enterprise wiki or team workspace. Niko Nyman describes two ways to motivate people towards collaboration with money– and why they have their limits:

“The $1 million challenge” — The real incentive here is not direct
monetary reward, but the opportunity of winning a significant reward.
What kind of people take part in such lottery? Are these the people whose contribution you really want? How much effort are people willing to put into the slim chances of winning?

Paid content production — Paying people by contribution. It will get very expensive to pay any significant reward to content producers. If the reward is not significant, money is not the real incentive to contribute. One way to make the rewards bigger is to reward only the best. But how do you rank the content and decide who should be paid more? Squidoo and Mechanical Turk come to mind, both of which have not been that great successes.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to intrinsic motivation again, the type of motivation that is hardest to influence from the outside. Nevertheless, intrinsic motivation is getting increasing attention because not only collaboration but also creativity thrives when people are passionate about what they do. And even though intrinsic motivation basically is a personal decision (Is the glass half full or half empty?), it can well be taught (uncovered, encouraged, trained,...)

So, when that enterprise2.0 software is implemented, don't just offer manuals.
And, to get back to the HBR article, subscribe to a "multiplayer online role-playing game perspective" on team work: Players advance by collaborating with other characters, using each other's individual strengths for the common goal.

Surviving LOHAS

2008-04-14T09:18:00.003+02:00

The New York Times recently had an article on Americans who are preparing for the worst - the worst being natural catastrophes like Katrina, blackouts, terrorist attacks or any other incidents that would make essentials like energy or food unaffordable or unavailable: People start to stockpile canned food and medicine, they grow vegetables in their gardens and install solar panels on their roofs.
The phenomenon was coined “New Survivalism” and is backed by authers like Barton M. Biggs, the former chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, who wrote in his new book “Wealth, War and Wisdom”, that people should stock their homes with “seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down.”

Sounds too gloomy ? Compare this to a sunnier view of the future:

“The LOHAS market forecast is sunny and is predicted to grow to $420 billion by 2010, and $845 billion by 2014. Fortunately, the influential LOHAS market believes that it is important for companies not just to be profitable, but to be mindful of their impact on the environment and society.” (American wellness network – but could have been found elsewhere too)

LOHAS is short for Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability – and people adopting that lifestyle are seen as the pace makers for the economy. LOHAS means consumption. Critical consumption. Green consumption. Sustainable consumption. Therefore, countless surveys, marketing strategies and business cases are developed around the LOHAS market potential. But the LOHAS industry is built on an overly optimistic scenario: Climate change leads to ecological awareness and more conscious consumption patterns. What if climate change and other catastrophes come closer to home? Will people still fall for green marketing and sustainability messages?

The “New survivalists” offer some lessons.

See also my earlier post on likely effects of climate change.

Moving out of Slavery

2008-04-06T21:26:00.010+02:00

Every year, Gallup surveys German employees' motivation in the workplace. Every year the results are sobering (see this graph at Spiegel online): More than two Thirds of the working population only work to rule, passively, with low emotional involvement or loyalty to their company. Just around 13% are highly motivated and productive. I told this to a colleague and she said that in ancient times the passive two Thirds were the slaves. Hm.

The Harvard Business Review has an interview with Twyla Tharp (unfortunately not free content), a leading American dancer and choreographer and author of "The Creative Habit". What she has to say is useful advice for business leaders as well as employees: Creativity, personal development is not something restricted to a few fortunately gifted people. (In fact, believing that creativity is a closed domain for a few selected is a comfortable excuse for staying passive.) There is always a choice. Be a slave or not.
And one way to keep the mind open and creative is to move the body. What would Twyla Tharp tell Steve Jobs to do, if he came to see her?

"Hit the deck, let's do 30 push-ups." That's the first thing I'd say to any
businessperson: Get moving. Because one of the things I think I have to offer
people is the knowledge that using your body makes your brain work better.

See Twyla Tharp giving practical tips here:

Collaboration everywhere?

2008-03-22T21:35:00.007+01:00

I recently made a survey on software facilitating enterprise collaboration - one of my favorite topics. It is a booming field, so I found innovative concepts all over the place. Interestingly, startups with office2.0 applications seem to thrive best under the Californian sun. Sure, there is a lot of software developing going on elsewhere too. But also a lot of wondering, why other regions – Australia, South Korea, India… are still lagging behind. There are many reasonable answers, too, including lack of financial support and entrepreneurial mindset. Nevertheless, I was starting to wonder, if Wikinomics might concentrate in the U.S., at least for the time being, for cultural reasons.

Some evidence:

Prasad Kaipa, executive director of the new Centre of Excellence for Leadership, Innovation & Change at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad said about Indian innovation tactics that the focus is on individual learning and creativity combined with very small research-and-development budgets. In the U.S., however, the norm was teamwork and large R&D budgets. (Prasad Kaipa is cited in Business Week “The wisdom of no crowds”.)

In Japan, people love to stay anonymous on the web. Kensuke Furukawa ("Kensuu") , a Japanese web community developer, stated in his presentation on differences between Japanese and American web communities, that the majority of 2ch users are registered by the name of “nanashisan” which means “nameless” (2ch is the biggest bulletin board service in the world according to Kensuu.)

In South Korea, participation has been part of the web long before the term web2.0, "the participatory web" hit the Western world. Openness, however, another element of web2.0 is still weak in South Korea. At least, this is what Seokchan "Channy" Yun, author of Koreacrunch, pointed out in his presentation Why not Web2.0 in Korea.

Cultural differences do not necessarily have to block the spreading of wiki ways of working. Whoever is developing services or software, should simply be aware of these cultural issues, and design accordingly. As always.

Attention - Do the Test!

2008-03-20T08:03:00.003+01:00

Another video demonstrating how easy it is to manipulate the human brain. Or how we manipulate ourselves: With a fixation on tasks, goals, expectations we will easily overlook what is immediately in front of us.

Stress and Lies

2008-03-16T21:55:00.005+01:00

Got this in an Iconoculture newsletter some weeks ago:

According to a Watson Wyatt Worldwide study, stress is the leading cause that prompts people to quit their jobs. Yet stress is not even among the top five reasons cited by employers, who instead believe insufficient pay is why people generally leave.

Well, as this startling discrepancy shows, it is not just the stress but also a lack of communication that drives people to leave their jobs. And that should ring a few alarm bells, because forecasts tell that enterprises will need more than attractive pay in the future war for talent.

So what does it take to build a stress-reducing, communicative atmosphere? It’s a wide field... One does not need the gift of clearvoyance to see a big market for enterprise consulting coming up. From collaborative software to motivational interior design everything is on sale already. And I predict that the time has come for graduates of social studies and psychology to enter the consulting profession big time and tell top management about practical implications of non-verbal communication, group dynamics or the latest in anthropology.

That reminds of a “breakthrough idea” which Paul Root Wolpe and Daniel D. Langleben shared in the February issue of Harvard Business Review (see all ideas here):

Accurate, reliable lie detection using functional MRI technology may well be within our grasp. The potential applications in business and elsewhere are many, but peeking inside people's brains is a delicate matter that interested firms will want to handle with the utmost care

Eek, that does not sound very trust-enabling… But leaving initial concerns aside, such technology might actually help finding out in which situations employees feel uneasy or nervous – and how measures such as office redesign or a certain communicative conduct reduce or increase the stress level.

An easy to use gadget that puts a figure on the feel-good-factor of an office. Wow, that would help figure-fixated employers comprehend the power of stress. And I bet investors would love to get their daily update on the stress level of CEOs, too...

Creativity predicted

2007-12-14T20:40:00.000+01:00

Subliminal Advertising by Derren Brown.

Fascinating video which claims to show how two advertising guys are tricked by subliminal adverts and messages into creating a predicted image. Numerous comments on Youtube - some suspecting the film has been manipulated afterwards, some just finding it awesome.
Even if the movie does not tell the whole story, I still think it shows that "out of the box thinking" is hard to achieve.
No matter where the two guys got their ideas from, they also ordered them exactly as predicted. This was maybe triggered by Derren's task, nevertheless, the instructions left room for variations. But no experiments here... As if there was a common layout, to do with fashion maybe or even with following a textbook case? Well, the guys only had 30 min, obviously not enough to go beyond the normal... And the lesson is, if you really want to create something truly original, don't take the same route every day. And if you hire advertisers, don't let them take the same route every day either, if you want something truly "out of the box".

Climate changes what?

2007-12-09T20:28:00.000+01:00

Climate change is making big headlines, and rightly so. Yet, when you try to find out what climate change means for you, personally, in the next 5, 10 years, all you get is abstract scenarios (at best): tourism will suffer in certain regions, as will agriculture and transport, we'll see more catastrophes like tsunamis, and the extinction of species ...things like that. And on the other hand, you get ecofriendly technologies, LOHAS, governments discussing ... which is all ok, but i still think that the real topic has not been touched yet. Or am I the only one thinking that upgrading my home and my lifestyle has very little to do with the impact climate change will have on my life?

How are we going to live with limited resources in a more fragile world?

I am not a futurologist. So here some wild guesses that I suspect many share. (Maybe inspired by growing up in the GDR, a country with limited energy resources and a high premium on over-the-border transport as well)

Due to higher costs of transport & energy, prices will rise for all products, including groceries. People will have new priorities when they go shopping: Food is more valued. Exotic fruit will be the luxury they once were and locally produced food the cheaper choice. Overall, the range of brands will diminish - local manufacturers compete with only a few global brands (who often will also source locally). Also travelling will be more of a luxury, hence the world will get smaller. Local bonds will be strengthened with a new interest in feasts and rituals. Who will care any longer what catastrophes happen in a far away country when the disasters in your neighbourhood take up all your compassion.

OK, that may sound like a fallback to medieval times. Which would be nonsense as a complete picture. I am quite sure about the end of consumerism and throwaway society, though. The economic crisis that will accompany this will be a pain and a challenge to the social stability of Western nations... Is this why nobody is interested in writing about such visions? Instead, you get soothing stories about investing in green shares, buying low-energy lightbulbs, driving a conscience-friendly car. I'll keep looking for answers...

Mobile Graffiti

2007-12-04T20:03:00.001+01:00

Stumbled across a really cool mobile tagging project in Edinburgh called Spellbinder:.

"Spellbinder is a new interactive digital medium based on camera phones and image matching. Using Spellbinder, digital content can be embedded in the real world by taking a photograph of an object or place. The digital content can be released by another user by taking another photograph of the same location. Spellbinder does not require special markers or barcodes to be placed in the world and works indoors or outdoors. Unlike tracking technologies such as global positioning systems, the focus is onwhat specifically is being looked at rather than where the user is. "

Currently, the system is used for an Edinburgh Invisible Art project (see picture from the interesting BBC article about this, but, as Dr Mark Wright of the Division of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh told the BBC, not just locations but practically everything could be linked to the virtual world. "With Spellbinder, the real world becomes a computational resource."

Fascinating: Take a picture of a real life object and get information, pictures, sounds, comments from your community,... in return. Lots of applications possible. But what really entices me is that mobile tagging based on real objects instead of code is one more step towards living in a world where virtual and real are no longer distinguishable. Yep, I fell for the Simulation Argument which says that if mankind is at some point able to build a simulation of the real world (and it looks like we're getting there), then chances are we are already living in one. And I think that is a consolation :-)

Waiting for the millennials

2007-11-10T17:53:00.001+01:00

Visited the Medientage München.This year the central theme was 'Media Yourself – How the Internet is Transforming Media and Society'. Was there just for 2 hours - admittedly not enough time to get anything but a superficial impression. Which was that yes, as the title and the many panel discussions suggested, media and marketing companies are waking up to web2.0. But the challenges or opportunities that come with "consumer empowerment" are seen as a thing of the future. Let the experts discuss, for the sales reps at the booth its business as usual.

And maybe they are right.

"I don't believe in interactivity." - I heard from Fitness Company. The fitness club was there to present their brand new Fitcom.music TV as a marketing tool. Is it possible for users to select music? Or how about connecting an ipod to the server to transfer the favourite playlist? Blank face. The current target group does not need this. Maybe when a different age group is entering the fitness clubs.

Ever heard of Betty TV ? An interactive remote control that lets you - for instance - participate in quiz shows or order promoted products. Nice idea actually, introduced in Switzerland in 2006, celebrated as the first push worldwide into interactive TV. At that time, triple play and convergence were the next big thing - and Swisscom, which had bought Betty TV, received a lot of attention for playing to it.
Since its start in Germany this February, the clumsy Betty TV remote control found its way into 120.000 households in Germany. (Well, one more actually, provided I get round to setting up the kit I got as a gift.) But is there a Betty community? Any interaction apart from transmitting lotto numbers or responding to A-B-or-C-questions that fit into the tiny display? No. And maybe there never will be. Because the people using Betty TV are classic couch potatoes, who will prefer simple options on a simple remote control to complicated menus or interactions.
I believe in simplicity myself, but still... Just found out that Betty TV is closing down in Switzerland by end of this month because results did not meet the company's expectations. Could it be that Betty also did not meet consumer's expectations?

The stand of the Bavarian public TV channel (Bayerischer Rundfunk) highlighted the podcast download center of its website. Wow. And can I rate or comment podcasts? No. Could I export them to my blog? Ah, well, that is not as it is supposed to be. But I could definitely put a link.

Everybody seems to wait for the millennials, who will demand what the experts were guessing at in their podium discussions.

Some of the next generation were actually there, too. Had themselves photographed with mobile phones at Next ID's booth to find out how much (in %) they look like David or Victoria Beckham. The result was displayed on a big screen. Fun idea. At mi-friends a group of millennials were giving examples about what they would do with a solution like mi-friends. - Btw...an interesting, so far non-commercial project, most of my 2 hours I spent at their booth, getting a free lecture on the mi-friends pilots, the web2.0 hype and reality. Worth a separate post once I read through the material I carried home with me...

Future Web

2007-11-06T21:36:00.001+01:00

Browsing through the internet - news sites and blogs - these days can give you the impression that with Google's opensocial initiative, we're really at the threshold to a new web. For sure, Google's opensocial initiative is a brandnew topic in the realm of Google searches as the graphs above show (for comparison I chose "widget"- a search term with a longer history.)

"Creating a standard API is only the first step. Google's vision, according to Joe Kraus, the developer in charge of the project, is to push for more open interfaces between rival social networks, so that personal data are no longer trapped in any one system." - the Financial Times wrote. And Business Week was musing whether even Facebook or Yahoo might join the party.

"Given the magnitude of the change in Web consumption behavior brought about by social networking sites, newspaper companies need to think about how their content, tools and services might interoperate with these standards. " suggests Steve Yelvington in his blog dedicated to media topics.

But newspaper companies are certainly not the only ones who should brainstorm about opportunities. If Google's vision comes true users might want to manage every service from their profile - from getting an appointment with the local dentist to paying taxes or booking flights. Maybe a little far fetched at the moment... but some threats are real already: According to TechCrunch, opensocial is not paying much attention to security and can easily be hacked.

Unuseless Things

2007-10-30T20:49:00.002+01:00

After going on about useless products yesterday, I was alerted to chindogu - useless inventions. Actually, a chindogu (literally a queer tool) is un-useless, as Kenji Kawakami, who invented hundreds of impractical and humorous things (including the hayfever-hat), explained. "Even useless things can be useful," he is quoted in the NYT. "The weird logic of these inventions helps us see the world in fresh ways."
Japan is the natural home of chindogu, seemingly, because Japanese culture is more open to new things than many other societies. Fortunately, chindogu are a global phenomenon by now, and since their credo does not allow much more than prototyping, they can unfold their mind-bending capabilities without littering shopping baskets.

To qualify as a chindogu, inventions have to respect a few guidelines:
1. A Chindogu cannot be for real use
2. A Chindogu must exist
3. Inherent in every Chindogu is the spirit of anarchy
4. Chindogu are tools for everyday life
5. Chindogu are not for sale
6. Humour must not be the sole reason for creating a Chindogu
7. Chindogu is not propaganda
8. Chindogu are never taboo
9. Chindogu cannot be patented
10. Chindogu are without prejudice

Check out this one: Designer Aya Tsukioka invented a vending machine costume to hide from criminals
More Chindogu at the International Chindogu Society (!)

Useless Things

2007-10-29T19:49:00.000+01:00

Been reading around climate change recently, trying to figure out what abstract notions such as "temperatures will rise" may mean for every day life in the near future. Maybe that made me a little bit intolerant yesterday when my children got chocolate eggs with plastic figures inside for a present. Too much sugar, plastic thingies that don't deserve to be called toys, that are destined to fall apart and be eaten by the vacuum cleaner next Saturday. What a waste of energy! I was reminded of the top 10 list of things everybody could start with to reduce global warming. For short, here just the headlines:

Project Switch: Change your light bulbs!
Drive your car differently – or drive a different car altogether!
Your house – not too hot, not too cold!
Tame the refrigerator monster!
Twist the knobs on your other household appliances!
Don't over-dry your clothes.
Green plants with less water, more trees to provide shade.
Buy Green Energy, and invest in green energy stocks.
Go organic.
Buy recycled.
Be a minimalist.

I know its covered somehow already, but I think a special mention is well-deserved

Let the surprise chocolate eggs rot in the shop.

There are a lot of other useless things for sale, of course. But compared to the hype around seemingly cool innovative products, the useless crap does not get adequate media attention! That's why I like the Bad Product Awards which Consumers International this month bestowed upon:

Mattel for selling toys with poisonous levels of lead paint
CocaCola for marketing simple tap water as a premium brand
Kellog's for marketing junk food to kids
Takeda for marketing sleeping drugs for kids

More useless products? Add them to the list at brainR !

Renewable emails?

2007-10-23T19:52:00.000+02:00

Shocking news: emails, avatars, blogs like this - well everything that is part of the internet is adding to climate change! Süddeutsche wrote today (based on an NYT article) that a single Google search requires the same energy as a 11-Watt-light bulb per hour and a Second Life avatar needs an average 1752 kwh per year - more than some real humans for instance in India. Research from Prognos Institut estimated that electricity consumption for internet is responsible for CO2 emissions of 4 million tons per year in Germany alone, putting Internet on the same level as the aviation industry. As data traffic is constantly increasing, internet is a real (climate) killer application.
This puts a lot of internet offers - from eco-innovation blogs like the one at treehugger to established green brands like greenpeace and every one in the LOHAS (lifestyle of health and sustainability) customer segment at a serious dilemma. An equivalent to recycled paper is needed: Recycled webpages? Well, close: If you choose a black instead of a white background for your site, this will substantially reduce energy consumption for most monitors. For the clear eco-conscience, you can get a CO2 free e-mail address from atomstromfreies Internet an initiative of Greenpeace Energy. A great idea is also to ban email, at least for one day, as U.S.Cellular did with its "email free friday" (see story in Wall Street Journal), an initiative meant to ease workers' overload. Or just pull the plug.

On Strike

2007-10-22T19:57:00.001+02:00

German train drivers want more money which makes commuting more thrilling than it already is. A 30 hrs strike is planned this week - and people like me just hope that this is the final show down, before a settlement is finally reached with Deutsche Bahn. (see FTD) Maybe what we'll see also is the show down of the professional category train driver as fully automized trains without any personnel are just getting a free image boost.
A different strike is on the cards in Hollywood: The Writers Guild of America warned studios and networks that TV writers will take resolute action, if they are denied a doubling of DVD residuals. The Time magazine already drew up some implications for viewers:
1) A heavy dose of reality and game shows
2) Late-night ad libs
3) The British Invasion through BBC imports
4) Developing newbies
5) Reruns
That was for TV, the implications for movies would not become visible before 2009
1) Mass immigration of writers
2) More bad movies get a shot
3) Doc stocks: More documentaries
4) Theaters go live
- - Sounds like an interesting experiment to me! Also some advertisers will be open to experiment as some of their TV spending is free to go elsewhere. My, and the TV writers themselves will suddenly have time for brainstorming.
Come to think of it, there are a lot of fields were a little push (or strike) might be all that is needed to unleash creative energy and a wealth of new options. Want to know where strikes are needed most? Check out the discussion at brainR.de (German) and brainreactions.net and take part in brainstorming!

Motivation

2007-10-21T17:04:00.000+02:00

Read an article in Harvard Business Manager ("Was Mitarbeiter wirklich denken") on what motivates people to work efficiently, creatively and with team spirit. Focus was on the role that emotions play. Not surprisingly, the field research proved that emotions have a significant impact. - Especially, reaching a goal lifts the spirits. Even 1-2 days after being especially happy with one's work and the atmosphere, people work more creatively. On the other hand, employees were not creative on days that involved anger and frustration. So is the takeaway that companies and bosses should make happy employees their priority? Well, I like that message. And the article had some hints how to achieve that, too. But there will always be occasions for unhappiness, plenty of them. How to get out of this boat? Think of what happens if you become aware of how much you are guided by feeble emotions. I bet the survey results would look different. If one could simply be astonished, when the usual reaction would be disappointment, frustration, sadness. I am not quite there...But for a start, here is my blog about astonishing things & light bulb moments. See how this works out...